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By Microsoft

1 recommend/use · 2 sourced episodes

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Mindset4 steps

False Positive Risk and the Replication Protocol

A p<0.05 win can be 26% likely false when idea success rates are low — replicate borderline results

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Strategy3 steps

Focusing Power on an Addressable Target

Strategy works only when you concentrate a genuine source of power on a target that can actually be moved.

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Innovation4 steps

Incremental OFAT Over Big-Bang Redesign

Decompose big redesigns into one-factor-at-a-time tested steps because ~80% of ideas fail

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Leadership4 steps

Institutional Memory of Experiments

Capture wins, losses, and surprises so the org keeps learning instead of relaunching old ideas

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Strategy4 steps

Sample Ratio Mismatch (SRM) Validity Check

Verify your traffic split matches its design before trusting any experiment result

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Strategy4 steps

Spotting Bad Strategy

Four tells that a 'strategy' is actually empty: no diagnosis, goals-as-strategy, fluff, and incoherent actions.

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Strategy4 steps

The 200K-User Experimentation Readiness Rule

Below ~200K users detect only big effects; use the wait to build platform and culture

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Strategy4 steps

The Action Agenda (Ambition-Filter Method)

Stop writing a 'strategy.' Filter your ambitions down to one important, addressable challenge and act.

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Innovation3 steps

The Crux: Insight Through Immersion

Find the single hardest solvable part of the problem, immerse in it, and let insight emerge.

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Leadership4 steps

The Foundry: Facilitating a Group to One Action Agenda

Put the leader plus 7-8 people in a room, surface 25 problems, then focus on the one or two addressable ones.

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Strategy3 steps

The Kernel of Good Strategy

Every real strategy has three parts: a diagnosis, a guiding policy, and coherent action.

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Strategy4 steps

The Overall Evaluation Criterion (OEC)

Define one success metric with countervailing guardrails that predicts long-term lifetime value

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Entrepreneurship3 steps

The Value Deny: Finding Opportunity in What You Can't Buy

List what you should be able to buy but can't, or how a familiar product ought to work but doesn't.

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Mindset4 steps

Twyman's Law: Investigate the Too-Good-to-Be-True Result

Any surprising or extreme experiment result is probably wrong until you've hunted for the flaw

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