Three-Ingredient Emerging Channel Evaluation Framework
Decide whether a hot new acquisition channel is worth your time using three lenses before you invest.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 95%
A decision framework for evaluating whether to invest in an emerging acquisition channel (TikTok, Clubhouse, OTT, influencer, VR). Instead of chasing whatever is hot, you score three things: how well the channel's strengths overlap with your customer needs and business goals, the channel's DNA (maturity, volatility, and monetization model), and your own company's DNA (risk appetite and existing channel mix). The output is a green/yellow/red light plus a sizing decision.
Origin
Adam Grenier's framework, developed while building growth marketing at Uber and advising companies; he applies it to teams and founders he coaches. Builds on the S-curve model of company growth (always seeking the next growth curve).
Core principles
- 01Most people only ask whether a channel is hot, not whether its strengths actually fit their business — that overlap is the piece ignored most.
- 02A channel's maturity determines your risk: very early channels may be once-in-a-lifetime opportunities that vanish, and will demand constant cycles to keep working as the product evolves.
- 03If you can match or support a channel's monetization strategy, you earn leverage — custom deals, partnerships, and durability.
- 04Don't put energy into a brand-new channel before you have a working foundation on basic channels like Google and Facebook.
How to run it
- 1
Test the strength overlap
Check whether the channel's core strength overlaps with what your customers need AND what your company's growth goals are. Ask what the medium does really well, then whether that matches your product. Audio-first Clubhouse fits Spotify's audio-driven goals; photo-driven Paparazzi does not.
Pro tip Name the specific strength of the medium (e.g. influencer = hyper-targeted contextual reach; OTT = broad reach and video storytelling) and match it to an asset you already have.
Watch out Many B2B companies waste effort forcing themselves onto emerging consumer channels that simply don't apply. A weak overlap is a yellow light at best, even if the channel becomes huge.
- 2
Read the channel's DNA
Assess where the channel sits in its trajectory (early and volatile vs. established), and study how it monetizes. Early channels carry high change-risk; you must accept the opportunity may not repeat or last.
Pro tip If you can support the channel's monetization goal, position yourself as a valuable case study to get into alphas and custom partnerships — as Grenier did with Facebook mobile ads at Hotel Tonight.
Watch out Building your growth on an early channel feature can collapse overnight — Zynga/Zoosk lost huge growth when Facebook pulled the plug on notification posting.
- 3
Match against your company DNA
Evaluate your own risk profile and current channel mix. Being a true first mover means broken tracking, no playbook, ads on offensive content, and dedicating staff without distracting the core. Only do it if you can absorb that AND already have volume on foundational channels.
Pro tip Reserve first-mover bets for when you already have a good foundation and are in the 'add layers' stage of growth, not the survival stage.
Watch out Very few companies should invest in a brand-new unscalable channel before getting something working on Google and Facebook first.
In the wild
Grenier scores Clubhouse against Spotify: Spotify's goals are more audio consumption and deeper engagement, customers want music discovery and deeper artist relationships, and Clubhouse is audio-first with rooms of esoteric expertise. Strong overlap. Paparazzi is photo-driven with nothing to do with music.
→ Clubhouse is a green light worth Spotify's time; Paparazzi is a yellow light at best even if it became the biggest channel ever.
Having bought mobile ad inventory on networks for years while waiting for Facebook to work for mobile installs, Grenier positioned Hotel Tonight to get into Facebook's mobile-ads alpha by arguing they were a non-game case study Facebook needed to prove ads worked for travel and leisure, not just gaming.
→ Getting in early let a smaller spender secure a leg up and durable value by aligning with Facebook's monetization goal of making ads work beyond gaming.
Common mistakes
Chasing channels purely because they're hot
The most-ignored ingredient is strength-overlap. Teams jump on Clubhouse or TikTok because everyone is talking about them, without checking whether the channel's strengths fit their customer and business goals — the reason to be there at all.
Going all-in on an early, volatile channel
Early channels change their product weekly and can pull features that your growth depends on. Betting heavily on an unproven channel before securing foundational channels leaves you exposed when it shifts or dies.
Is it for you?
Best for
Growth and marketing leaders at product-led companies deciding whether to allocate team time to an emerging acquisition channel.
Not ideal for
B2B companies reflexively forcing themselves onto emerging consumer channels, or startups that haven't yet found volume on basic paid channels.
From the transcript
“the like exploring emerging channels framework that I'll take either my teams or companies that I'm advising through has kind of core Three core ingredients”
“the first is really understanding if there is a an overlap between what the customers need is what your company's goals are and what the…”
“that is actually probably the piece I see people ignore the most which is they just want to know if a channel is hot or…”
“the second is the channel DNA”
“I like to spend a lot of time thinking about how they monetize like what is the monetization strategy of the channel”
“if you as a business can match or support their monetization strategy it actually gives you like a really interesting leg up with that channel”
“the third main ingredient is just your own company DNA and so I think like Risk profile is a big one”
“there's very few companies that I recommend saying like yes go put energy on this brand new channel that you don't know how to scale…”
From the episode
When and how to invest in new acquisition channels
Adam Grenier (Uber, MasterClass)