SWAG-and-Refine Strategy Draft
Draft strategy quickly, improve it one conversation at a time, then share it
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 92%
SWAG-and-Refine turns strategy development into a fast learning loop. The leader first writes a “stupid wild-ass guess”: a deliberately provisional but coherent point of view based on the evidence currently available. Biddle gave himself two weeks to do this after joining a company. Instead of disappearing to perfect it, he then showed the draft to one knowledgeable person at a time. Each person had more local context and could correct, challenge, or sharpen the thinking. The leader revised after every conversation, gradually improving both the strategy and the organization's familiarity with it. After roughly six weeks, the result was ready to share across the company. The method values speed without pretending the first answer is correct. Its mechanism is an explicit draft, repeated high-context feedback, and cumulative revision before broad communication.
Origin
Biddle describes using this approach when joining a new company: two weeks to create an initial product strategy, followed by individual feedback conversations and a company-wide version around six weeks later.
Core principles
- 01A rough point of view creates something concrete to improve
- 02Speed exposes assumptions earlier than private perfectionism
- 03People closest to the company refine a newcomer's thinking
- 04One-to-one feedback builds both accuracy and alignment
- 05The initial draft is a hypothesis, not a finished answer
How to run it
- 1
Time-box the SWAG
Give yourself a short deadline to form the best strategy you can from current evidence. Produce a complete point of view even though it will be wrong in places.
Pro tip Biddle used two weeks for an initial product strategy after joining a company.
Watch out Do not confuse speed with certainty; label assumptions clearly.
- 2
Choose the first reviewer
Take the draft to one person with deep company context. Ask what is wrong, missing, or poorly prioritized rather than seeking approval.
Pro tip Start with someone who has been close to the problem for years.
Watch out A large group review too early can produce politics before the thinking is coherent.
- 3
Revise immediately
Update the strategy with the valid evidence from the conversation. Preserve unresolved disagreements as explicit questions for later reviewers.
Pro tip Let each reviewer see a better draft than the previous one.
Watch out Collecting feedback without changing the artifact turns consultation into theater.
- 4
Repeat across perspectives
Continue one-to-one reviews with people who understand different customers, functions, and constraints. Use repetition to detect which objections are isolated and which are structural.
Pro tip Sequence conversations so later reviewers can challenge the synthesis of earlier ones.
Watch out Only consulting people who already agree will polish the draft without testing it.
- 5
Share the refined strategy
Present the revised point of view broadly once the core assumptions have survived informed review. Explain what changed and where uncertainty remains.
Pro tip Biddle's rough cadence was about six weeks from joining to company-wide communication.
Watch out Do not present the refined draft as permanent; strategy remains a hypothesis.
In the wild
Biddle would give himself two weeks after joining a company to draft its product strategy. He then showed his best thinking to one colleague at a time, recognizing that people who had been there for years knew more than he did. He refined the artifact after those conversations and shared it across the company around six weeks later.
→ The organization received a strategy formed quickly but improved through concentrated local knowledge rather than months of solitary analysis.
Common mistakes
Waiting for the perfect answer
Months of private analysis delay the feedback that reveals wrong assumptions. A concrete rough draft creates a faster path to truth.
Presenting the SWAG as authority
The first draft exists to invite correction. Treating it as a mandate wastes the expertise of people with deeper context.
Starting with a committee
Broad review before a coherent point of view exists can diffuse responsibility and turn learning into negotiation.
Is it for you?
Best for
New product leaders who need to form and socialize a company strategy while learning from people with deeper local knowledge.
Not ideal for
Crisis decisions that require an immediate call or regulated strategies that need formal analysis before circulation.
From the episode
Gibson Biddle on his DHM product strategy framework, GEM roadmap prioritization framework, 5 Netflix strategy mini case studies, building a personal board of directors, and much more