Expected-Conversions Prioritization
Rank topics by search volume x topical authority x conversion intent, not by volume alone.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~weeks to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 90%
With thousands of candidate topics, you need a way to sequence them. Ethan Smith multiplies three factors, search volume (or traffic), topical authority (can you actually compete), and conversion intent (does this traffic buy), to produce a prioritized list of topics by expected conversions. This stops teams from chasing high-volume topics they can't win or won't monetize.
Origin
Ethan Smith's prioritization model used on editorial SEO builds at Graphite.
Core principles
- 01Volume without authority is unwinnable; volume without conversion intent is unprofitable
- 02Topical authority determines where you can realistically compete right now
- 03The output is a ranked list of topics by expected conversions, not raw traffic
How to run it
- 1
Build the topic universe with volumes
Scrape competitors via ahrefs/semrush to assemble all topics in your market sorted by search volume or traffic (e.g. 10,000 food topics).
- 2
Score topical authority
For each topic assess how competitive you can be given your existing authority and adjacency to what you're already known for.
- 3
Score conversion intent
Estimate how well each topic converts (e.g. fluid vs comics vs photography convert differently), because traffic value varies enormously by topic.
- 4
Multiply and rank
Multiply volume x authority x conversion intent to get expected conversions, then work the list top-down.
Watch out A high-volume topic you can't rank for, or that never converts, sinks to the bottom despite looking attractive.
In the wild
Starting from zero knowledge of food, Graphite pulls competitors' pages and keywords, sorts 10,000 topics by volume, layers in where they can compete (topical authority) and how each converts, producing a ranked list.
→ A prioritized backlog of topics by expected conversions instead of a naive volume-sorted list.
Common mistakes
Prioritizing by search volume alone
High-volume topics you lack authority to win, or that don't convert, waste writing budget while winnable, converting topics go unbuilt.
Ignoring conversion intent
Ranking for large but commercially irrelevant topics drives traffic that never turns into revenue.
Is it for you?
Best for
Growth and SEO leads sequencing a large content backlog under limited budget
Not ideal for
Very small topic universes where sequencing barely matters
From the transcript
“we have 10 000 food topics sorted by search”
“then we want to look at conversion intent how does fluid versus Comics versus photography convert”
“then we have a prioritized list of Topics by expected conversions”
From the episode
The ultimate guide to SEO
Ethan Smith (Graphite)