Conservative Plan with Milestone Unlocks
Plan for the downside, then let pre-agreed milestones unlock the budget to accelerate.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- 90%
When market visibility is low, set a deliberately conservative annual revenue plan, then define short-term milestone checkpoints that unlock additional spend and growth if hit — or force deceleration if missed. Decisions about what happens at each checkpoint are agreed with the board and sales team in advance, removing the founder's optimism bias from mid-year debates.
Origin
Sahil Mansuri's method for founders facing the 2022 downturn, drawn from Bravado's real-time quota data showing 63% of reps and 76% of companies missing Q3 targets.
Core principles
- 01Be conservative but not unreasonably conservative — avoid whipsawing between panic and euphoria
- 02Forecast a full year but re-forecast regularly as new data arrives
- 03Set checkpoints and predetermined decisions up front to defeat founder optimism bias
- 04Agree the accelerate/decelerate rules with board and sales leadership before the quarter starts, so there's no debate later
How to run it
- 1
Set a conservative baseline plan
Assume revenue could decline despite best efforts. Example: if you did $10M this year, plan next year as if you'll drop to $9M.
Pro tip Founders' natural optimism is a disadvantage in a down market — deliberately plan below your gut number.
Watch out Don't bring targets down too far or too fast — that raises red flags on spend and burn and forces painful, possibly unnecessary cuts.
- 2
Define milestone checkpoints
Break the year into short-term targets. Example: Q1 needs $2.5M in revenue as the checkpoint.
- 3
Pre-commit accelerate/decelerate decisions
Decide now what each outcome triggers: hit $2.5M in Q1 → revise targets up and unlock additional budget; come in below $2M → revise the number down.
Pro tip Get comfortable being wrong and adding new data to make decisions regularly without fearing you'll look like you don't know what you're doing.
Watch out Set the targets up front — deciding after you've missed Q1 invites the 'no, we'll really hit it in Q2' rationalization.
- 4
Align the board and sales team in advance
Come to agreement with your board, sales team, and sales leadership before the quarter so there is no debate about what to do when you get the actual number.
In the wild
Mansuri walks through a company that did $10M this year and has no visibility into next year. They plan for a 10% decline to $9M. Q1's checkpoint is $2.5M — beat it and they revise up and unlock spend; fall below $2M and they revise down.
→ A single conservative plan that can be steered up or down at pre-set checkpoints, avoiding both reckless spend and needless retrenchment.
Common mistakes
Planning only one quarter at a time
Forecasting a quarter out every time is an unworkable way to run a business — you still need an annual forecast, just with checkpoints inside it.
Letting optimism bias re-set targets mid-year
Without pre-committed checkpoint decisions, founders miss Q1 and tell themselves they'll make it up in Q2, so the conservative plan never actually disciplines spend.
Is it for you?
Best for
Startup founders and CEOs building an annual revenue plan amid high market uncertainty and major headwinds.
Not ideal for
Stable, high-visibility markets where a straightforward growth plan is sufficient and constant re-forecasting adds needless overhead.
From the transcript
“setting up a really conservative plan and then having Milestones short-term Milestones that unlock the ability to lean into growth and spend based on hitting…”
“you got to set the targets up front because as Founders we tend to have a bias towards optimism”
“coming to an agreement with your board with your sales team with your sales leadership in advance so that there's no debate about what to…”
From the episode
How to hit revenue targets in a recession
Sahil Mansuri (Bravado)