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Sahil Mansuri (Bravado)04 December 2022

How to hit revenue targets in a recession

7Frameworks
14Insights

Frameworks in this episode

Marketing3 steps

Become a Value-Added Advisor with Cross-Section Data

Turn the industry data only you can see into exclusive insight that keeps customers from churning.

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Innovation4 steps

Change the Rules of the Game

When the game is rigged against you, don't optimize — invent a new model.

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Strategy4 steps

Conservative Plan with Milestone Unlocks

Plan for the downside, then let pre-agreed milestones unlock the budget to accelerate.

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Leadership3 steps

Move Your Best Closers to Customer Success

In a downturn, patch the leaky bucket — put your top reps on keeping the customers you already have.

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Sales4 steps

Retention-Aligned Sales Compensation

Pay reps for customers who stay, renew, and expand — not just for the logo they closed.

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Influence4 steps

Teach, Don't Pitch: The Buyer-Research Cold Open

Do research so good the buyer can't ignore it — give insight, not a sales pitch.

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Sales4 steps

Warm-Intro-via-Text Closing Play

Host a customers-only event, harvest referrals, and convert them over text — not email.

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take43:30

The Radical Move: Turn Your Best Salespeople Into CSMs

Sahil's most dramatic downturn recommendation is to move your best account executives out of pre-sales and into customer success. If new logos are nearly impossible to win, the leverage is in retaining existing customers, and he says he is actually doing this at Bravado and advising his portfolio companies to do the same. He acknowledges many will call it bad advice.

  • Take your best salespeople and make them CSMs (customer success managers)
  • New enterprise deals are drying up; retaining customers is the higher-value job
  • Losing existing customers is the one thing you cannot afford, because replacing them is near-impossible
  • He's applying this at Bravado and advising portfolio companies to do the same

“take your best sales people and make them csms”

Sahil Mansuri · 43:30

“what we cannot under any circumstances do is lose our existing customers”

Sahil Mansuri · 45:30
#retention#sales#csm#leadership
Hot Take1:08:00

Being a CEO Is the Same Job as Being a Salesperson

Asked whether he misses selling, Sahil says he does it every day because a founder's entire job is sales: selling yourself on the leap, selling talented people to join, selling investors on capital, selling early customers, and selling reporters and recruits. He extends the point to VCs, whose core function is selling LPs and CEOs, with the analytics just being their version of updating the CRM.

  • A founder must sell themselves on taking the leap first
  • Then sell talented people to join, and investors to fund, with little traction
  • VCs are salespeople too: selling LPs to fund them and CEOs to take their money
  • The core job of a CEO is to be a great salesperson

“you have to convince yourself to do it just sell yourself on the fact that you want to do this”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:08:30

“the core function of a VC is to sell the core function of a CEO is to be a great salesperson”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:10:00
#founders#sales#leadership#venture-capital

Explainer· 2

Explainer11:30

Why Your Sales Strategy Has to Change When Capital Gets Expensive

Sahil argues that the go-to-market advice that worked 8-38 months ago no longer applies because the cost of capital rose, funding dried up, and investors now reward unit economics and retention over raw top-line growth. In this market, cold prospecting loses to cross-selling and upselling the customers you already have, because budget freezes and layoffs make new accounts hard to crack.

  • Cost of capital went up and funding dried up, shifting what investors reward
  • Investors now favor strong unit economics and high retention rates over pure growth
  • Cold prospecting falls in value; cross-sell and upsell to existing customers rises
  • Budget freezes, hiring freezes, and layoffs make breaking into new accounts hard

“cold prospecting goes down in favor of cross-selling and upselling your existing customer base”

Sahil Mansuri · 11:30
#sales#recession#gtm-strategy#retention
Explainer23:30

How Sales Comp Really Works: OTE, the 50/50 Split, and 5x Quota

Sahil breaks down why sales compensation is structured unlike any other role: low base, high variable. The most common SAS setup is a 50/50 split, where a $200K OTE means only $100K base, with the other $100K unlocked by performance, and quota set at roughly 5x OTE because a rep should cost about 20% of the revenue they bring in.

  • OTE (On Target Earnings) is what you make if you hit quota
  • The common SAS split is 50/50: a $200K OTE means a $100K base
  • Quota is typically 5x OTE (a $200K OTE rep carries a $1M quota)
  • Rationale: a fully loaded rep should cost about 20% of the revenue they sell

“the most common ratio that you see in SAS is what's known as a 50 50 split”

Sahil Mansuri · 23:30

“your cost for a sales rep fully loaded should be about 20 so you can afford to pay 20 of your salary to a sales…”

Sahil Mansuri · 24:30
#compensation#sales#ote#quota

Story· 4

Story13:00

The Real-Time Data: 63% of Reps and 76% of Companies Missed Q3 Quota

Using Bravado's seller portfolio, which tracks ~200,000 reps against quota in real time, Sahil shares hard numbers on how badly 2022 deteriorated. Rep-level and company-level quota misses climbed sharply each quarter, and monthly data showed an even steeper October collapse, which he uses to explain the layoff wave.

  • 63% of sales reps missed quota in Q3, up from 54% in Q2 and 46% in Q1
  • 76% of companies missed their Q3 target, up from 59% in Q2 and 51% in Q1
  • 85% of reps on monthly quotas missed in October, expected higher in November
  • Bravado predicted over 80% of companies would miss Q4 goals

“63 of sales reps missed quota 63 that's up from 54 in Q2 and 46 in q1”

Sahil Mansuri · 13:00

“76 percent of companies missed their Q3 Target”

Sahil Mansuri · 13:00
#sales#data#quota#recession
Story25:00

Rep A vs Rep B: Why Comp Plans Reward the Wrong Salesperson

Sahil contrasts two reps: Rep A closes $1.5M across 15 deals, makes $400K, and wins President's Club, while Rep B closes fewer, higher-quality deals. When 10 of Rep A's customers churn and all of Rep B's renew, upsell, and give references, neither outcome touches their pay. He uses this to show that 99% of SAS comp plans reward booked new business and are blind to retention.

  • Rep A: 15 deals, $1.5M, ~$400K pay, President's Club and an award
  • When 10 of Rep A's 15 customers churn, it doesn't affect their comp at all
  • Rep B's higher-quality customers all renew, give references, and upsell
  • 99% of SAS comp plans make no distinction, blaming churn on customer success

“doesn't affect them at all make no difference 99 of SAS companies are set up this way”

Sahil Mansuri · 28:30
#compensation#retention#churn#incentives
Story59:30

How a Cold Email to Sheryl Sandberg Closed Facebook for Glassdoor

At 22, unable to crack Facebook through the usual talent contact, Sahil had a data scientist build a nine-page report comparing how Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft engineers rated their companies, plus Mark Zuckerberg's ~96% approval on Glassdoor. He cold-emailed Sheryl Sandberg, BCCing every guessable address variant, and got a reply within hours, a meeting the next morning, and a massive deal, with the rating added to Facebook's weekly exec packet.

  • After repeated canned rejections, he tried something entirely different
  • Built a 9-page report on how FB engineers rated the company vs Google/Amazon/Microsoft
  • Cold-emailed Sheryl Sandberg, BCCing every guessed address variant
  • Sent ~3-4pm Sunday, got a reply by 6pm and a 10am meeting the next day
  • The report was added to Facebook's weekly executive leadership packet

“then send an email to Cheryl Sandberg a cold email to Cheryl Sandberg whose email address I did not have”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:02:00

“I think I sent the email around three or four p.m on a Sunday by 6 PM I got a response back from Cheryl Sandberg”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:03:00
#sales-story#cold-email#enterprise-sales#glassdoor
Story1:13:00

Change the Rules of the Game: The Bravado Flex Pivot

Facing a recruiting-marketplace slowdown, Sahil says you can't optimize your way out of a broken model, you have to change the rules of the game. Bravado launched Flex, a commission-only / fractional way for out-of-work reps and cash-strapped companies to work together, a model that made no sense a year earlier but fit the new supply-demand imbalance and drove one of the company's best months ever.

  • You can't optimize your way out of a problem; change the rules of the game
  • Minor tweaks (10% price cut) are useless when the old model is dead
  • Bravado Flex created a commission-only / fractional sales-hiring model
  • The pivot turned a slumping business into a record month
  • Try radical pricing changes too, e.g. daily or monthly instead of annual

“you can't optimize your way out of a problem you got to completely change the rules of the game”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:18:00

“overnight we went from you know having a massive sled on our business to one of the best months that we've ever had in company…”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:16:00
#innovation#pivot#business-model#recession

Tool· 2

Tool1:19:30

Book Pick: 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Dan Gilbert

In the lightning round, Sahil names Dan Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness as the one book he thinks everyone should read. He recommends it especially for founders and executives who want to learn to sell, because it teaches how buyers make decisions and how to think about sales through psychology.

  • The one book he thinks every person should read
  • Author: Dan Gilbert
  • Valuable for founders/executives learning to sell
  • Teaches how buyers make decisions using psychology

“book that I think every person should read it's called stumbling upon happiness”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:20:00
#book#recommendation#psychology#sales
Tool1:22:00

Tool Pick: Grain for Clipping Zoom Calls

Among the SAS products Sahil finds useful, he highlights Grain, which lets you clip moments from Zoom meetings and share them. He values it because he can take a snippet from a customer call, user interview, or VC call and let others hear the point in the speaker's own words.

  • Grain makes shareable clips of Zoom meetings
  • Useful for customer calls, user interviews, and VC calls
  • Lets others hear a point in the original speaker's words
  • (He also cites Slack and Notion as core tools)

“grain allows you to make clips of uh Zoom meetings and send them out”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:22:00
#tool#saas#meetings#product

Takeaway· 4

Takeaway16:30

Plan Conservatively, Then Unlock Growth at Preset Milestones

Rather than either slashing targets or clinging to optimism, Sahil recommends building a deliberately conservative annual plan with short-term milestone checkpoints that unlock (or cut) spend. Agree the thresholds with your board and sales leadership in advance so there's no debate later, and counter the founder bias toward optimism, which he says is a disadvantage in this market.

  • Set a conservative plan, e.g. assume revenue drops 10% next year
  • Use quarterly checkpoints (hit $2.5M in Q1 to revise up; below $2M to revise down)
  • Make the decisions predetermined and agreed with the board in advance
  • Founders' bias toward optimism is a disadvantage in a downturn

“setting up a really conservative plan and then having Milestones short-term Milestones that unlock the ability to lean into growth and spend based on hitting…”

Sahil Mansuri · 16:30

“as Founders we tend to have a bias towards optimism that's generally how Founders operate and in today's market that's more of a disadvantage than…”

Sahil Mansuri · 18:00
#forecasting#planning#quotas#leadership
Takeaway47:30

Use Your Cross-Section Data to Become a Value-Added Advisor

Sahil argues every vendor sits on a cross-section of what everyone in an ICP is doing at once, and in a downturn you should mine that to help customers survive. Instead of white papers for lead gen, publish benchmark insights for retention, so an analytics tool, ATS, or recruiting marketplace becomes indispensable strategic data rather than just another line item.

  • Every vendor has a cross-section of what its whole ICP is doing simultaneously
  • Shift from a tool in the stack to a value-added advisor that helps customers plan
  • Bravado tells clients how peers adjust quotas, comp, and hiring if they stay
  • A greenhouse-style ATS could publish headcount and salary benchmarks by cohort

“becoming less of a tool as part of the SAS stack and more of a value-added advisor”

Sahil Mansuri · 47:30
#retention#data#product-marketing#customer-success
Takeaway55:30

Get Warm Intros Over Text, and Never Drop Off the Thread

With cold outreach failing, Sahil says warm intros are the highest-leverage channel, but the mechanics matter. Ask the customer to connect you by text, not email, keep the introducer on the thread for the first several messages so their reputation keeps the prospect accountable, and keep pinging persistently, one deal took nine weeks of follow-up to land.

  • Warm intros beat cold outreach when response rates collapse
  • Ask to be connected over text; email is where deals go to die
  • Keep the introducer on the thread early so the prospect stays accountable
  • Persistence works: one intro took ~9 weeks of pinging to convert

“stop using email is where deals go to die”

Sahil Mansuri · 56:00

“you keep the person on the thread long enough so that you've actually built that relationship for the first call”

Sahil Mansuri · 56:30
#sales-tactics#warm-intros#closing#outreach
Takeaway1:10:30

Great Salespeople Don't Have 'Happy Ears'

Sahil pushes back on the idea that great salespeople are relentless optimists. The best reps are internally pessimistic, actively trying to disqualify deals and hunting for signals a prospect won't buy, while still selling positively externally. That ability to hold both is what separates good from great, because optimists waste time on deals that never close.

  • The stereotype of the ever-optimistic salesperson is wrong
  • Great reps are internally pessimistic and try to disqualify deals
  • They look for signals a prospect won't buy while still selling positively
  • Good reps get misled by prospects; great reps prioritize their time properly

“great sales people don't have what I call Happy ears this is a problem that the people misunderstand”

Sahil Mansuri · 1:10:30
#sales-technique#qualification#mindset