Sahil Mansuri (Bravado)04 December 2022

How to hit revenue targets in a recession

7Frameworks

14Insights

Episode overview

Sahil Mansuri explains how founders should adapt sales strategy when recessionary conditions make quotas harder to hit, sales cycles longer, and new customers more difficult to acquire. He advocates conservative annual forecasts with predetermined short-term checkpoints, compensation plans that reward customer retention, and shifting strong sellers toward customer success. He also shares tactical approaches to warm introductions and insight-led selling, plus Bravado's creation of a flexible sales-work marketplace in response to the downturn.

Key ideas

Build a conservative annual forecast, then use predetermined short-term milestones to unlock more spending or trigger further reductions.
Reforecast regularly and agree on decision thresholds in advance to counter founders' natural optimism bias.
Redesign sales compensation so representatives benefit when their customers renew, expand, advocate, and prove to be a good long-term fit.
Prioritize retention by moving top sales talent toward customer success when replacing churned customers is unusually difficult.
Turn proprietary cross-customer data into useful benchmarks and research that make the company a strategic advisor rather than merely another software vendor.
Use current customers to obtain warm introductions, ask for immediate text connections, and keep the introducer involved until the first meeting is secured.
Win difficult accounts by teaching buyers something uniquely valuable, as illustrated by Sahil's custom employee-sentiment report for Facebook.
When the old model stops working, change the rules through experiments such as fractional sales staffing or radically different pricing structures.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

Marketing3 steps

Become a Value-Added Advisor with Cross-Section Data

Turn the industry data only you can see into exclusive insight that keeps customers from churning.

Read →

Innovation4 steps

Change the Rules of the Game

When the game is rigged against you, don't optimize — invent a new model.

Read →

Strategy4 steps

Conservative Plan with Milestone Unlocks

Plan for the downside, then let pre-agreed milestones unlock the budget to accelerate.

Read →

Leadership3 steps

Move Your Best Closers to Customer Success

In a downturn, patch the leaky bucket — put your top reps on keeping the customers you already have.

Read →

Sales4 steps

Retention-Aligned Sales Compensation

Pay reps for customers who stay, renew, and expand — not just for the logo they closed.

Read →

Influence4 steps

Teach, Don't Pitch: The Buyer-Research Cold Open

Do research so good the buyer can't ignore it — give insight, not a sales pitch.

Read →

Sales4 steps

Warm-Intro-via-Text Closing Play

Host a customers-only event, harvest referrals, and convert them over text — not email.

Read →

People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 7

Lenny RachitskyMentionstoday we've got another very special compilation episode something I've been pulling on more and more with the podcast and the newsletter
“welcome to Lenny's podcast I'm Lenny”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Sahil MansuriMentionssahil is the CEO and founder of bravado
“today my guest is sahil mansuri sahil is the CEO and founder of bravado”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Barack ObamaMentionsmentioned
“I worked on the Obama campaign”
▶ Watch at ~4:30approx.
Mark ZuckerbergMentionsit was sort of a random decision for Mark Zuckerberg to move from a uh monthly active to a daily active
“I met Mark Zuckerberg himself”
▶ Watch at ~1:04:00approx.
Dan GilbertCoinedmentioned
“Dan Gilbert I think is the author”
▶ Watch at ~1:20:00approx.
Aaron SorkinMentionsmentioned
“I'm also a big fan of Aaron Sorkin so I liked The Newsroom a lot and West Wing”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.
James SpaderMentionsmentioned
“James Spader yeah”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.

Resources · 46

BravadoCoinedcompany · Sahil Mansuri
“sahil is the CEO and founder of bravado”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Lenny's PodcastCoinedpodcast · Lenny Rachitsky
“welcome to Lenny's podcast I'm Lenny”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
FlatfileMentionssoftware · Flatfile
“if you'd like to learn more or get started check out flat file at flatfile.com”
▶ Watch at ~3:00approx.
MergeMentionscompany · Merge
“with merge visit merge.dev Lenny to get started and integrate up to five customers for free”
▶ Watch at ~4:00approx.
MeltwaterUsescompany
“the company that I used to do sales for which is called melt water”
▶ Watch at ~5:30approx.
FordMentionscompany
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
AmazonMentionscompany · Jeff Bezos
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
Bank of AmericaMentionscompany
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
VisaMentionscompany
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
WalmartMentionscompany
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
JPMorgan ChaseMentionscompany
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
GlassdoorUsescompany · Glassdoor
“probably most notably a Glassdoor where I joined is one of the first 2025 employees was responsible for Enterprise sales there”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
GoogleMentionscompany · Google
“personally closed Facebook Google Amazon Microsoft Ford Visa Bank of America JP Morgan Walmart”
▶ Watch at ~6:30approx.
Stack OverflowMentionswebsite · Joel Spolsky and Jeff Atwood
“if you're familiar with stack Overflow and what that Network and community means to engineering”
▶ Watch at ~8:30approx.
Bravado War RoomMentionsproduct · Bravado
“bravado has a product that's affectionately known as the War Room”
▶ Watch at ~8:30approx.
Seller PortfolioMentionsproduct · Bravado
“uses a product called the seller portfolio and the seller portfolio is a real-time tracker”
▶ Watch at ~12:00approx.
Mint.comMentionssoftware
“you can kind of think of it like mint.com but instead of being for personal finance it's for sales”
▶ Watch at ~12:30approx.
Boiler RoomMentionsfilm
“they're stuck in the world of you know Glenn Gary Glenn Ross Boiler Room Wolf of Wall Street”
▶ Watch at ~30:30approx.
Glengarry Glen RossMentionsfilm
“they're stuck in the world of you know Glenn Gary Glenn Ross Boiler Room Wolf of Wall Street”
▶ Watch at ~30:30approx.
The Wolf of Wall StreetMentionsfilm · Martin Scorsese
“they're stuck in the world of you know Glenn Gary Glenn Ross Boiler Room Wolf of Wall Street”
▶ Watch at ~30:30approx.
MiroUsessoftware · Miro
“I actually use Miro to come up with a plan for this very ad”
▶ Watch at ~40:30approx.
BravadoUsescompany · Sahil Mansuri
“we're taking our best people and we're moving them into CSM at bravado”
▶ Watch at ~46:00approx.
MixpanelMentionssoftware · Mixpanel
“let's pick on like amplitude or mixed panel or you know pick your favorite”
▶ Watch at ~47:00approx.
AmplitudeMentionssoftware · Amplitude
“let's pick on like amplitude or mixed panel or you know pick your favorite”
▶ Watch at ~47:00approx.
LeverMentionssoftware
“greenhouse or lever or another applicant tracking system”
▶ Watch at ~49:00approx.
GreenhouseMentionssoftware
“greenhouse or lever or another applicant tracking system”
▶ Watch at ~49:00approx.
WebflowMentionssoftware · Webflow
“we have webflow as a customer I love webflow”
▶ Watch at ~56:00approx.
MicrosoftMentionscompany · Bill Gates and Paul Allen
“because I closed Microsoft and so because I close and I think I closed both Microsoft and Google”
▶ Watch at ~1:00:00approx.
HiredMentionscompany
“we run a recruiting Marketplace and you know competing with LinkedIn and Angel list and hired”
▶ Watch at ~1:13:00approx.
LinkedInMentionswebsite · LinkedIn
“we run a recruiting Marketplace and you know competing with LinkedIn and Angel list and hired”
▶ Watch at ~1:13:00approx.
AngelListMentionscompany · Naval Ravikant and Babak Nivi
“we run a recruiting Marketplace and you know competing with LinkedIn and Angel list and hired”
▶ Watch at ~1:13:00approx.
UberMentionscompany · Uber
“if Airbnb and Uber were you know grew dramatically during the pandemic”
▶ Watch at ~1:15:00approx.
AirbnbMentionscompany · Brian Chesky, Joe Gebbia, and Nathan Blecharczyk
“if Airbnb and Uber were you know grew dramatically during the pandemic”
▶ Watch at ~1:15:00approx.
Bravado FlexCoinedproduct · Bravado
“we launched something called bravado Flex which is a way for companies and candidates to work together in a non-full-time employment way”
▶ Watch at ~1:15:30approx.
SalesforceMentionscompany · Salesforce
“they don't need to update Salesforce”
▶ Watch at ~1:18:30approx.
Stumbling on HappinessRecommendsbook · Daniel Gilbert
“there's one book that I think every person should read it's called stumbling upon happiness”
▶ Watch at ~1:19:30approx.
All-In PodcastUsespodcast · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and David Friedberg
“I listen to the all input cast because I love the fact that they have really good show notes”
▶ Watch at ~1:20:30approx.
FrasierMentionstv show
“the thing is I like really nerdy stuff you know like Jeopardy and like Frasier”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.
The NewsroomMentionstv show · Aaron Sorkin
“I'm also a big fan of Aaron Sorkin so I liked The Newsroom a lot”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.
The West WingMentionstv show · Aaron Sorkin
“I liked The Newsroom a lot and West Wing and whatnot”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.
Jeopardy!Mentionstv show
“the thing is I like really nerdy stuff you know like Jeopardy and like Frasier”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:00approx.
reMarkable tabletUsesproduct · reMarkable
“I've tried to use the remarkable tablet and other stuff like that”
▶ Watch at ~1:21:30approx.
SlackUsessoftware · Slack Technologies
“slack is the central OS of our business”
▶ Watch at ~1:22:00approx.
GrainUsessoftware
“there's a product called grain that I really like that I think is really cool”
▶ Watch at ~1:22:00approx.
Apple PodcastsMentionssoftware · Apple Inc.
“you can subscribe to the show on Apple podcast Spotify or your favorite podcast app”
▶ Watch at ~1:26:00approx.
SpotifyMentionssoftware · Spotify
“you can subscribe to the show on Apple podcast Spotify or your favorite podcast app”
▶ Watch at ~1:26:00approx.

Spot an error or want something removed? Request a correction or removal.

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take43:30

The Radical Move: Turn Your Best Salespeople Into CSMs

Sahil's most dramatic downturn recommendation is to move your best account executives out of pre-sales and into customer success. If new logos are nearly impossible to win, the leverage is in retaining existing customers, and he says he is actually doing this at Bravado and advising his portfolio companies to do the same. He acknowledges many will call it bad advice.

Take your best salespeople and make them CSMs (customer success managers)
New enterprise deals are drying up; retaining customers is the higher-value job
Losing existing customers is the one thing you cannot afford, because replacing them is near-impossible
He's applying this at Bravado and advising portfolio companies to do the same

“take your best sales people and make them csms”
Sahil Mansuri · 43:30

“what we cannot under any circumstances do is lose our existing customers”
Sahil Mansuri · 45:30

#retention#sales#csm#leadership

Hot Take1:08:00

Being a CEO Is the Same Job as Being a Salesperson

Asked whether he misses selling, Sahil says he does it every day because a founder's entire job is sales: selling yourself on the leap, selling talented people to join, selling investors on capital, selling early customers, and selling reporters and recruits. He extends the point to VCs, whose core function is selling LPs and CEOs, with the analytics just being their version of updating the CRM.

A founder must sell themselves on taking the leap first
Then sell talented people to join, and investors to fund, with little traction
VCs are salespeople too: selling LPs to fund them and CEOs to take their money
The core job of a CEO is to be a great salesperson

“you have to convince yourself to do it just sell yourself on the fact that you want to do this”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:08:30

“the core function of a VC is to sell the core function of a CEO is to be a great salesperson”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:10:00

#founders#sales#leadership#venture-capital

Explainer· 2

Explainer11:30

Why Your Sales Strategy Has to Change When Capital Gets Expensive

Sahil argues that the go-to-market advice that worked 8-38 months ago no longer applies because the cost of capital rose, funding dried up, and investors now reward unit economics and retention over raw top-line growth. In this market, cold prospecting loses to cross-selling and upselling the customers you already have, because budget freezes and layoffs make new accounts hard to crack.

Cost of capital went up and funding dried up, shifting what investors reward
Investors now favor strong unit economics and high retention rates over pure growth
Cold prospecting falls in value; cross-sell and upsell to existing customers rises
Budget freezes, hiring freezes, and layoffs make breaking into new accounts hard

“cold prospecting goes down in favor of cross-selling and upselling your existing customer base”
Sahil Mansuri · 11:30

#sales#recession#gtm-strategy#retention

Explainer23:30

How Sales Comp Really Works: OTE, the 50/50 Split, and 5x Quota

Sahil breaks down why sales compensation is structured unlike any other role: low base, high variable. The most common SAS setup is a 50/50 split, where a $200K OTE means only $100K base, with the other $100K unlocked by performance, and quota set at roughly 5x OTE because a rep should cost about 20% of the revenue they bring in.

OTE (On Target Earnings) is what you make if you hit quota
The common SAS split is 50/50: a $200K OTE means a $100K base
Quota is typically 5x OTE (a $200K OTE rep carries a $1M quota)
Rationale: a fully loaded rep should cost about 20% of the revenue they sell

“the most common ratio that you see in SAS is what's known as a 50 50 split”
Sahil Mansuri · 23:30

“your cost for a sales rep fully loaded should be about 20 so you can afford to pay 20 of your salary to a sales…”
Sahil Mansuri · 24:30

#compensation#sales#ote#quota

Story· 4

Story13:00

The Real-Time Data: 63% of Reps and 76% of Companies Missed Q3 Quota

Using Bravado's seller portfolio, which tracks ~200,000 reps against quota in real time, Sahil shares hard numbers on how badly 2022 deteriorated. Rep-level and company-level quota misses climbed sharply each quarter, and monthly data showed an even steeper October collapse, which he uses to explain the layoff wave.

63% of sales reps missed quota in Q3, up from 54% in Q2 and 46% in Q1
76% of companies missed their Q3 target, up from 59% in Q2 and 51% in Q1
85% of reps on monthly quotas missed in October, expected higher in November
Bravado predicted over 80% of companies would miss Q4 goals

“63 of sales reps missed quota 63 that's up from 54 in Q2 and 46 in q1”
Sahil Mansuri · 13:00

“76 percent of companies missed their Q3 Target”
Sahil Mansuri · 13:00

#sales#data#quota#recession

Story25:00

Rep A vs Rep B: Why Comp Plans Reward the Wrong Salesperson

Sahil contrasts two reps: Rep A closes $1.5M across 15 deals, makes $400K, and wins President's Club, while Rep B closes fewer, higher-quality deals. When 10 of Rep A's customers churn and all of Rep B's renew, upsell, and give references, neither outcome touches their pay. He uses this to show that 99% of SAS comp plans reward booked new business and are blind to retention.

Rep A: 15 deals, $1.5M, ~$400K pay, President's Club and an award
When 10 of Rep A's 15 customers churn, it doesn't affect their comp at all
Rep B's higher-quality customers all renew, give references, and upsell
99% of SAS comp plans make no distinction, blaming churn on customer success

“doesn't affect them at all make no difference 99 of SAS companies are set up this way”
Sahil Mansuri · 28:30

#compensation#retention#churn#incentives

Story59:30

How a Cold Email to Sheryl Sandberg Closed Facebook for Glassdoor

At 22, unable to crack Facebook through the usual talent contact, Sahil had a data scientist build a nine-page report comparing how Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft engineers rated their companies, plus Mark Zuckerberg's ~96% approval on Glassdoor. He cold-emailed Sheryl Sandberg, BCCing every guessable address variant, and got a reply within hours, a meeting the next morning, and a massive deal, with the rating added to Facebook's weekly exec packet.

After repeated canned rejections, he tried something entirely different
Built a 9-page report on how FB engineers rated the company vs Google/Amazon/Microsoft
Cold-emailed Sheryl Sandberg, BCCing every guessed address variant
Sent ~3-4pm Sunday, got a reply by 6pm and a 10am meeting the next day
The report was added to Facebook's weekly executive leadership packet

“then send an email to Cheryl Sandberg a cold email to Cheryl Sandberg whose email address I did not have”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:02:00

“I think I sent the email around three or four p.m on a Sunday by 6 PM I got a response back from Cheryl Sandberg”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:03:00

#sales-story#cold-email#enterprise-sales#glassdoor

Story1:13:00

Change the Rules of the Game: The Bravado Flex Pivot

Facing a recruiting-marketplace slowdown, Sahil says you can't optimize your way out of a broken model, you have to change the rules of the game. Bravado launched Flex, a commission-only / fractional way for out-of-work reps and cash-strapped companies to work together, a model that made no sense a year earlier but fit the new supply-demand imbalance and drove one of the company's best months ever.

You can't optimize your way out of a problem; change the rules of the game
Minor tweaks (10% price cut) are useless when the old model is dead
Bravado Flex created a commission-only / fractional sales-hiring model
The pivot turned a slumping business into a record month
Try radical pricing changes too, e.g. daily or monthly instead of annual

“you can't optimize your way out of a problem you got to completely change the rules of the game”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:18:00

“overnight we went from you know having a massive sled on our business to one of the best months that we've ever had in company…”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:16:00

#innovation#pivot#business-model#recession

Tool· 2

Tool1:19:30

Book Pick: 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Dan Gilbert

In the lightning round, Sahil names Dan Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness as the one book he thinks everyone should read. He recommends it especially for founders and executives who want to learn to sell, because it teaches how buyers make decisions and how to think about sales through psychology.

The one book he thinks every person should read
Author: Dan Gilbert
Valuable for founders/executives learning to sell
Teaches how buyers make decisions using psychology

“book that I think every person should read it's called stumbling upon happiness”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:20:00

#book#recommendation#psychology#sales

Tool1:22:00

Tool Pick: Grain for Clipping Zoom Calls

Among the SAS products Sahil finds useful, he highlights Grain, which lets you clip moments from Zoom meetings and share them. He values it because he can take a snippet from a customer call, user interview, or VC call and let others hear the point in the speaker's own words.

Grain makes shareable clips of Zoom meetings
Useful for customer calls, user interviews, and VC calls
Lets others hear a point in the original speaker's words
(He also cites Slack and Notion as core tools)

“grain allows you to make clips of uh Zoom meetings and send them out”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:22:00

#tool#saas#meetings#product

Takeaway· 4

Takeaway16:30

Plan Conservatively, Then Unlock Growth at Preset Milestones

Rather than either slashing targets or clinging to optimism, Sahil recommends building a deliberately conservative annual plan with short-term milestone checkpoints that unlock (or cut) spend. Agree the thresholds with your board and sales leadership in advance so there's no debate later, and counter the founder bias toward optimism, which he says is a disadvantage in this market.

Set a conservative plan, e.g. assume revenue drops 10% next year
Use quarterly checkpoints (hit $2.5M in Q1 to revise up; below $2M to revise down)
Make the decisions predetermined and agreed with the board in advance
Founders' bias toward optimism is a disadvantage in a downturn

“setting up a really conservative plan and then having Milestones short-term Milestones that unlock the ability to lean into growth and spend based on hitting…”
Sahil Mansuri · 16:30

“as Founders we tend to have a bias towards optimism that's generally how Founders operate and in today's market that's more of a disadvantage than…”
Sahil Mansuri · 18:00

#forecasting#planning#quotas#leadership

Takeaway47:30

Use Your Cross-Section Data to Become a Value-Added Advisor

Sahil argues every vendor sits on a cross-section of what everyone in an ICP is doing at once, and in a downturn you should mine that to help customers survive. Instead of white papers for lead gen, publish benchmark insights for retention, so an analytics tool, ATS, or recruiting marketplace becomes indispensable strategic data rather than just another line item.

Every vendor has a cross-section of what its whole ICP is doing simultaneously
Shift from a tool in the stack to a value-added advisor that helps customers plan
Bravado tells clients how peers adjust quotas, comp, and hiring if they stay
A greenhouse-style ATS could publish headcount and salary benchmarks by cohort

“becoming less of a tool as part of the SAS stack and more of a value-added advisor”
Sahil Mansuri · 47:30

#retention#data#product-marketing#customer-success

Takeaway55:30

Get Warm Intros Over Text, and Never Drop Off the Thread

With cold outreach failing, Sahil says warm intros are the highest-leverage channel, but the mechanics matter. Ask the customer to connect you by text, not email, keep the introducer on the thread for the first several messages so their reputation keeps the prospect accountable, and keep pinging persistently, one deal took nine weeks of follow-up to land.

Warm intros beat cold outreach when response rates collapse
Ask to be connected over text; email is where deals go to die
Keep the introducer on the thread early so the prospect stays accountable
Persistence works: one intro took ~9 weeks of pinging to convert

“stop using email is where deals go to die”
Sahil Mansuri · 56:00

“you keep the person on the thread long enough so that you've actually built that relationship for the first call”
Sahil Mansuri · 56:30

#sales-tactics#warm-intros#closing#outreach

Takeaway1:10:30

Great Salespeople Don't Have 'Happy Ears'

Sahil pushes back on the idea that great salespeople are relentless optimists. The best reps are internally pessimistic, actively trying to disqualify deals and hunting for signals a prospect won't buy, while still selling positively externally. That ability to hold both is what separates good from great, because optimists waste time on deals that never close.

The stereotype of the ever-optimistic salesperson is wrong
Great reps are internally pessimistic and try to disqualify deals
They look for signals a prospect won't buy while still selling positively
Good reps get misled by prospects; great reps prioritize their time properly

“great sales people don't have what I call Happy ears this is a problem that the people misunderstand”
Sahil Mansuri · 1:10:30

#sales-technique#qualification#mindset

Key ideas

Frameworks in this episode

Become a Value-Added Advisor with Cross-Section Data

Change the Rules of the Game

Conservative Plan with Milestone Unlocks

Move Your Best Closers to Customer Success

Retention-Aligned Sales Compensation

Teach, Don't Pitch: The Buyer-Research Cold Open

Warm-Intro-via-Text Closing Play

People & resources mentioned

People · 7

Resources · 46

Insights & moments

◆Hot Take· 2

The Radical Move: Turn Your Best Salespeople Into CSMs

Being a CEO Is the Same Job as Being a Salesperson

✶Explainer· 2

Why Your Sales Strategy Has to Change When Capital Gets Expensive

How Sales Comp Really Works: OTE, the 50/50 Split, and 5x Quota

❝Story· 4

The Real-Time Data: 63% of Reps and 76% of Companies Missed Q3 Quota

Rep A vs Rep B: Why Comp Plans Reward the Wrong Salesperson

How a Cold Email to Sheryl Sandberg Closed Facebook for Glassdoor

Change the Rules of the Game: The Bravado Flex Pivot

✦Tool· 2

Book Pick: 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Dan Gilbert

Tool Pick: Grain for Clipping Zoom Calls

▲Takeaway· 4

Plan Conservatively, Then Unlock Growth at Preset Milestones

Use Your Cross-Section Data to Become a Value-Added Advisor

Get Warm Intros Over Text, and Never Drop Off the Thread

Great Salespeople Don't Have 'Happy Ears'

Hot Take· 2

Explainer· 2

Story· 4

Tool· 2

Takeaway· 4