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Michael Margolis (UX Research Partner at Google Ventures)01 December 2024

Identify your bullseye customer in one day

5Frameworks
15Insights

Episode overview

Lenny Rachitsky interviews Michael Margolis about identifying the narrowly defined customer most likely to adopt a product first. Margolis presents a one-day Bullseye Customer Sprint built around five carefully recruited customers, three simple competing prototypes, qualitative interviews, and a team watch party. They explain how the process exposes weak demand, sharpens customer criteria, aligns teams, and helps companies avoid investing in products nobody strongly wants.

Key ideas

  • A bullseye customer is the highly specific subset of a target market most likely to adopt the product or service initially.
  • The sprint's “five and three in one” formula uses five bullseye customers, three distinct prototypes, and one concentrated interview day.
  • Define participants with concrete inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, and triggering events; a useful profile may feel comically narrow.
  • Recruiting difficulty is itself evidence: if the hypothesized customers cannot be found, the team should reconsider whether they exist or broaden selected criteria.
  • Use simple, distinct prototypes to compare value propositions and features without becoming overcommitted to a polished solution.
  • Begin interviews with past experiences and behavior, then compare prototypes; give more weight to demonstrated behavior than predictions of future use.
  • Have the core team watch live, take structured notes, debrief after every interview, record predictions beforehand, and independently capture final takeaways.
  • Strong demand appears as visible energy and pull—such as asking whether the product is available—while polite, neutral encouragement usually means no.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 7

  • Lenny RachitskyMentionstoday we've got another very special compilation episode something I've been pulling on more and more with the podcast and the newsletter

    today my guest is Michael Margolis

  • Michael MargolisMentionsMichael has been a ux researcher at Google Ventures for almost 15 years where he's worked with over 300 companies

    today my guest is Michael Margolis

  • Michael MargolisMentionsMichael has been a ux researcher at Google Ventures for almost 15 years where he's worked with over 300 companies

    I've conducted at this point over 300 Hands-On research Sprints with them

  • Kate AronowitzMentionsone of my partners so Kate Arana or Vanessa Cho it's amazing design Partners I get to work with

    one of my partners so Kate Arana or Vanessa Cho it's amazing design Partners I get to work with

  • Vanessa ChoMentionsone of my partners so Kate Arana or Vanessa Cho it's amazing design Partners I get to work with

    one of my partners so Kate Arana or Vanessa Cho it's amazing design Partners I get to work with

  • Andy JohnsMentionsAndy was a legendary product and growth leader at Facebook Twitter Kora and wealth front

    someone once described Andy John's on a newsletter post I just I wrote once

  • Edgar ScheinCoinedthere's this term that I love that edge shine um coin which is humble inquiry

    there's this term that I love that edge shine um coin which is humble inquiry

Resources · 26

  • SprintMentionsbook · Jake Knapp, John Zeratsky, and Braden Kowitz

    he helped develop the design Sprint method made famous by the book Sprint

  • Google VenturesMentionscompany · Google

    Michael has been a ux researcher at Google Ventures for almost 15 years

  • Learn More Faster: How to Find Your Bullseye Customer and Their Perfect ProductRecommendsbook · Michael Margolis

    this book is completely free and available online as a PDF

  • Lenny's PodcastCoinedpodcast · Lenny Rachitsky

    I've said many times on this podcast that one of the biggest mistakes Founders make and product teams make

  • Learn More Faster: How to Find Your Bullseye Customer and Their Perfect ProductCoinedbook · Michael Margolis

    more recently wrote a book called learn more faster how to find your Bullseye customer and their perfect product

  • EppoMentionssoftware · Eppo

    this episode is brought to you by EPO EPO is a generation AB testing and feature management platform

  • ParagonMentionssoftware · Brandon Foo

    this episode has brought to you by Paragon the developer platform for building native customer facing Integrations

  • Walmart.comUseswebsite · Walmart

    from there I went to walmart.com

  • GoogleMentionscompany · Google

    from there I went to Google so I was embedded in the Gmail team early on in 2006

  • GmailUsessoftware · Google

    I was embedded in the Gmail team early on in 2006

  • Google VenturesUsescompany · Google

    brought then to uh GV to Google Ventures when I joined in 2010

  • AmazonMentionscompany · Jeff Bezos

    Amazon started just selling books or Facebook was just profiles for college students

  • FacebookMentionscompany · Meta

    Amazon started just selling books or Facebook was just profiles for college students

  • ZoomUsessoftware · Zoom Video Communications

    I'm doing it over zoom and they're watching the live stream independently

  • Google FormsUsessoftware · Google

    we do it through a Google form it shows up in the spreadsheet

  • RespondentUseswebsite

    I Rely pretty heavily actually on user interviews um respondent is another one of these kind of services

  • User InterviewsUseswebsite · User Interviews

    I Rely pretty heavily actually on user interviews um respondent is another one of these kind of services

  • EnterpretMentionssoftware

    this episode is brought to you by interpret interpret unifies all your customer interactions

  • CraigslistUseswebsite · Craigslist

    I used to use Craigslist and I did a lot of some pretty crazy Rec recruiting people through Craigslist

  • Flatiron HealthMentionscompany

    I've done a lot of work in the past with oncologists with flat iron health

  • Google DocsUsessoftware · Google

    they're in a Google doc or notion or doc whatever you want collaboratively doing that

  • NotionUsessoftware · Notion Labs

    they're in a Google doc or notion or doc whatever you want collaboratively doing that

  • SlackUsessoftware · Slack Technologies

    there's also a slack Channel usually the background because there's other chatter

  • Learn More FasterRecommendswebsite · Michael Margolis

    learn more faster.com um you can go grab a free copy of the book

  • LinkedInRecommendswebsite · LinkedIn

    I'm on LinkedIn is probably a really great place to reach me

  • Lenny's Podcast websiteRecommendswebsite · Lenny Rachitsky

    you can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at Lenny podcast.com

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 3

Hot Take26:00

Your Bullseye Should Feel 'Comically Narrow'

Teams instinctively resist narrowing because they don't want to exclude a big market. Margolis pushes them the opposite way — the target should feel comically narrow so the whole team is convinced these exact people will want the product. If you can't find anyone thrilled it exists, that itself is a warning sign.

  • Narrowing reduces variables so you actually learn something from interviews
  • Too much variation produces mushy, inconclusive results
  • The narrow group is for research, not necessarily who you ultimately sell to
  • Inability to find thrilled people is a signal the product may not be needed

comically narrow is exactly what it is

Michael Margolis · 26:30

this is your chance to find the most thrilled people the most specifically pained and if you can't find that that's a problem

Lenny · 37:30
#targeting#customer-research#startups
Hot Take52:00

Learning Mode vs. Selling Mode: The Art of Humble Inquiry

Margolis draws a sharp line between selling and learning. Borrowing Edgar Schein's 'humble inquiry,' he argues research requires vulnerability — asking instead of telling, and giving the other person higher status. This is hard for founders wired to pitch, but it's fundamentally different from a sales conversation.

  • Humble inquiry = the gentle art of asking instead of telling (Edgar Schein)
  • Learning mode requires being vulnerable and admitting you don't know
  • Founders in constant pitch mode find this genuinely difficult
  • Selling and telling is distinct from learning and inquiry

humble inquiry is the gentle art of asking instead of telling

Michael Margolis · 52:30

there's something that's very distinct here about learning mode versus a selling mode selling and telling versus kind of this idea of humble inquiry

Michael Margolis · 54:00
#interviewing#mindset#customer-research
Hot Take56:30

Use Competitors' Products as Free Prototypes

Margolis is surprised more teams don't test competitors' existing products as ready-made prototypes. Some feel it's cheating or fear copying, but he argues that if you haven't watched real people react to your competitors' products, you're missing critical information. It's a free way to expand the range of value props you compare.

  • Competitor products work as zero-cost prototypes in a comparison test
  • Teams often avoid this out of a sense it's 'cheating'
  • Not just using a competitor — watching how people respond to it
  • Skipping this leaves an obvious knowledge gap

ideally I can find produ uh competitors products and use those as free prototypes

Michael Margolis · 56:30

if you haven't studied your competitor's products and not just gone through it but like seen how people respond to them you're just missing something

Michael Margolis · 57:00
#prototyping#competitive-research#product

Explainer· 5

Explainer09:00

What a Bullseye Customer Is (and How It Differs from Your ICP)

A bullseye customer is the narrow subset of your target market most likely to adopt first, and it is deliberately more specific than a typical ICP. Margolis frames it as a research construct for learning, not the final market you will sell to. Even huge companies started tiny and focused before expanding.

  • Bullseye = the very specific subset most likely to initially adopt your product
  • It is usually narrower than the ICP or personas founders show up with
  • Focus streamlines what you build, whose feedback you prioritize, and team alignment
  • Amazon started with books, Facebook with college profiles — success starts narrow

a bullseye customer is the very specific subset of your target market who initially is most likely to adopt your product or service

Michael Margolis · 09:00

Amazon started just selling books or Facebook was just profiles for college students

Michael Margolis · 10:00
#icp#customer-research#startups#product
Explainer17:00

Why You Test Three Prototypes Instead of Iterating One

Margolis compares showing customers multiple prototypes to shopping for a couch — a single option only gets an isolated opinion, but comparing several surfaces sharper reactions and trade-offs. Multiple prototypes also stop teams from over-committing to a single idea they've polished, keeping them neutral and objective.

  • One prototype gets an opinion; comparing several gives reference points
  • Customers aren't asked to imagine alternatives — you present them
  • The goal isn't a winner, it's the best pieces across options
  • Multiple prototypes prevent teams getting too wed to one idea

let's shop for a couch I like the color the cushions are uncomfortable I like the fabric or not

Michael Margolis · 17:00

the other big benefit of having multiple prototypes is it helps teams avoid getting too wed to one specific idea

Michael Margolis · 18:00
#prototyping#product#customer-research
Explainer39:30

Trigger Events: What Makes Someone Actually Ready to Buy

Beyond inclusion and exclusion criteria, Margolis emphasizes triggers — specific events that make someone ripe for a solution right now. With a life-insurance client targeting millennials, everyone said they 'should' buy it, but the real bullseye were people with a trigger like a new baby or marriage. The trigger flips a vague someday into an active to-do.

  • Triggers are events/situations that make someone ready or ripe to buy
  • Examples: a new CSO revamping tools, or something going wrong
  • Life-insurance: 'I should' buyers vs. those triggered by a baby or marriage
  • The trigger puts the person in a completely different, active mindset

these triggers are specific events or situations that somebody's been in that makes them particularly ready or ripe for the solution

Michael Margolis · 40:00

people who had the trigger was oh you just had a baby or you just got married

Michael Margolis · 41:00
#targeting#jobs-to-be-done#customer-research
Explainer1:13:30

Have the Team Predict Outcomes to Beat Hindsight Bias

Before the interviews, Margolis makes the whole team write down specific predictions of what they'll learn. Afterward, comparing results to those predictions counters hindsight bias — the tendency to feel 'we already knew that.' It proves how much was actually learned and helps demonstrate the value of doing research.

  • Everyone predicts specific outcomes before interviews start
  • Predictions must be concrete, not vague
  • Hindsight bias makes findings feel obvious after the fact
  • Comparing before/after proves real learning happened

we do this thing before the watch party where we get everybody to predict what they think they're going to learn

Michael Margolis · 1:14:00

there's this hindsight bias that happens which is as you've gone through the process it's very difficult to remember what you didn't you know that…

Michael Margolis · 1:15:00
#research-methods#cognitive-bias#teams
Explainer1:16:30

The Curse of Knowledge: Expert Teams' Common Blind Spots

Across many businesses, Margolis sees the same mispredictions, which he attributes to the curse of knowledge — deep experts can't imagine others not knowing what they know. This produces recurring blind spots: overestimating how much customers understand, how big a problem they think it is, how much they'll pay, and how ready they are to buy.

  • Curse of knowledge: experts can't imagine others' ignorance
  • Teams overestimate what customers know about the problem
  • They overestimate willingness to pay and readiness to buy
  • These blind spots recur across many expert teams

when somebody has deep expertise it's very difficult to imagine that other people don't know what you know

Michael Margolis · 1:17:00

there's an overestimation of how much your customer knows about the thing

Michael Margolis · 1:17:30
#cognitive-bias#customer-research#product

Story· 3

Story29:00

The Specialty-Meds Delivery Case: Narrowing to Refrigerated Prescriptions

A company building a delivery service for specialty medications assumed the key need was ASAP delivery. Interviews revealed the real bullseye cared far more about a predictable, narrow delivery window — driven by scenarios like refrigerated 'cold chain' meds or theft risk. Re-running the sprint on that subset produced a much sharper product-need match.

  • Initial assumption was speed/ASAP delivery mattered most
  • Real signal: a predictable, narrow arrival window mattered more
  • Critical scenarios were refrigerated meds and theft-prone situations
  • Re-recruiting on the refrigerated subset revealed the true bullseye

it's a refrigerated medication this can't be sitting out on my stoop right it's cold chain

Michael Margolis · 32:30

there's this very narrow specific group who's much more likely to adopt this than like everybody who has specialty medications because the need is just…

Michael Margolis · 34:00
#case-study#customer-research#healthtech
Story35:30

Killing a Project and Learning What 'No' Looks Like

A founder ran three rounds of the sprint on a complex hardware-plus-software product and ultimately killed it — which he called hugely valuable for saving time and effort. The second, subtler benefit was learning to recognize polite, neutral 'encouraging' feedback as a real no. Avoiding building something nobody wants is arguably the biggest payoff.

  • Cheap prototypes killed a big, complex build before it wasted resources
  • The founder learned to recognize what a genuine 'no' feels like
  • Neutral, encouraging feedback often masks disinterest
  • Saving a team from a wrong path is huge for everyone

it killed the project that was super valuable to him he saved a huge amount of time and effort

Michael Margolis · 36:00

now I know what no looks like

Michael Margolis · 36:30
#validation#customer-research#startups
Story1:07:30

Putting On Your 'Listener Character' Before an Interview

Interviewing well is a hard, practiced skill, not just talking to people. Margolis deliberately shifts into a different mode before each interview — a deep breath, a smile, and his 'listener character' of extreme curiosity and focus, quite unlike his normal skeptical self. It's so distinct his kids have overheard and asked who that person even is.

  • Interviewing is a practiced skill, not innate
  • He resets with a breath and a smile before each session
  • Adopts a 'listener character' of curiosity, unlike his cynical default
  • Smiling changes your voice even on the phone; look for a smile back

before I start an interview I stop I take a deep breath and I kind of put on that smile and I put on my…

Michael Margolis · 1:08:00

if my kids like have overheard like who is that dude because that does not sound like Dad

Michael Margolis · 1:08:00
#interviewing#mindset#customer-research

Tool· 1

Tool45:30

Recruiting Fast with User Interviews and Respondent

For most recruiting, Margolis relies on services like User Interviews (userinterviews.com) and Respondent, posting a screener questionnaire and getting responses in three to four days. He notes they're far more legit and faster than old methods like Craigslist. Hard-to-reach people (e.g. oncologists) need snowball recruiting or targeting forums and conferences instead.

  • User Interviews and Respondent are his go-to panels
  • Can recruit surprisingly specific people in 3-4 days
  • Sometimes 400+ responses roll in to sift through a spreadsheet
  • Very hard-to-reach roles (oncologists) require snowball/forum recruiting

I Rely pretty heavily actually on user interviews um respondent is another one of these kind of services

Michael Margolis · 45:30

no user interviews is much more legit and very fast

Michael Margolis · 47:30
#recruiting#tools#customer-research

Takeaway· 3

Takeaway54:30

Pay Participants Enough That They Actually Show Up

With five booked sessions and a whole team watching, no-shows are costly, so Margolis compensates generously rather than handing out $20 Starbucks cards. Consumer sessions run about $125/hour (a standard he inherited from Alphabet), and professionals like attorneys get their hourly rate — around $400/hour. He also doesn't use backups; he swaps out anyone who goes unresponsive beforehand.

  • Underpaying invites no-shows when the whole team is queued to watch
  • ~$125/hour for typical consumer participants
  • Up to ~$400/hour for professionals like attorneys
  • No alternates — he swaps out ghosting participants ahead of time

I'm not giving $20 Starbucks cards because somebody's going to blow you off

Michael Margolis · 54:30

I was paying like 400 bucks an hour for them to show up but I I need them to show up

Michael Margolis · 55:00
#recruiting#incentives#customer-research
Takeaway58:00

Keep Prototypes Flat — Don't Get Seduced by Fancy Builds

The prototypes are just simple PDFs — flat, no functionality — because the exercise is really a writing task: crisply articulating the distinct value prop, brand promise, and problem solved. Even as AI makes rich prototypes easy, Margolis warns against it; building more than you need re-introduces over-commitment and distracts from the actual question.

  • Prototypes are flat PDFs with no functionality
  • It's a writing exercise about value prop, not design polish
  • Build only as much as needed to answer the question
  • Fancy AI prototypes risk over-commitment and distraction

they're just PDFs really it's very flat there's no functionality

Michael Margolis · 58:00

build only as much as you actually need to answer the question you're trying to answer

Michael Margolis · 59:00
#prototyping#product#value-proposition
Takeaway1:22:00

Trust Past Behavior Over What People Say They'll Do

Margolis weighs people's actual past experiences far more heavily than their predictions of future behavior. When someone enthusiastically says they'd use a prototype but it contradicts their described history, he stays skeptical — everyone is terrible at predicting their own actions. Watch for genuine excitement and guard against confirmation bias in the room.

  • Anchor on demonstrated past behavior, not stated intentions
  • People are unreliable at predicting what they'll do
  • Discount enthusiasm that contradicts a person's actual history
  • Look for real excitement; police confirmation bias on the team

put more weight on past experiences than on people's predictions of what they would do

Michael Margolis · 1:22:00

we're all terrible at this predicting what we're going to do

Michael Margolis · 1:23:00
#research-methods#cognitive-bias#customer-research