Dan Hockenmaier (Faire, Thumbtack, Reforge)09 October 2022

Developing a growth model + marketplace growth strategy

8Frameworks

15Insights

Episode overview

Dan Hockenmaier explains growth models as spreadsheet-based analytical representations of acquisition, retention, monetization, and—where relevant—marketplace supply and unit economics. He argues that retention and early customer experience often have more leverage than top-of-funnel optimization, while marketplace operators should prioritize liquidity, demand, share of wallet, and careful management of ecosystem incentives. The discussion also covers marketplace expansion, vertical versus horizontal models, B2B fragmentation, and why some managed marketplaces eventually evolve into inventory-owning commerce businesses.

Key ideas

A growth model forces a team to express how acquisition, retention, monetization, transactions, and contribution margin connect.
Retention is often the highest-leverage growth variable, but improving it usually requires fixing the core and early product experience rather than adding notifications.
A company-wide conceptual model should be complemented by smaller models for individual product pods and go-to-market teams.
Marketplace health should be evaluated through transaction volume, unit economics, liquidity, and share of wallet.
Demand is the marketplace's ultimate currency; supply acquisition should be justified by its measurable effect on the demand-side experience.
Marketplace operators should use a light touch because incentive or mechanism changes can create delayed second- and third-order effects.
Expansion opportunities should be prioritized by adjacency, reuse of existing supply or demand, and reinforcement of network effects—not market size alone.
Marketplaces tend to charge higher commissions as they manage more of the value chain, and some eventually cease being marketplaces by owning supply.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

Strategy4 steps

Adjacency-and-Network Expansion Test

Prioritize marketplace expansion by adjacency and network reinforcement, not by the size of the adjacent TAM

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Finance3 steps

Dual-Sided ROI Equation

Price each acquisition to include the cost of acquiring the other side it needs, then push to your payback threshold

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Productivity3 steps

Homogenize the Early Experience for Retention

Move retention by fixing unlucky bad first experiences, not by nudging people about to churn

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Strategy4 steps

The Four Marketplace Health Metrics

Track GMV, unit economics, liquidity, and share of wallet to know if a marketplace is truly healthy

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Mindset3 steps

The Gardener Mindset for Marketplaces

Run a marketplace like a gardener with a light touch, not a construction worker building linear features

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Strategy6 steps

The Growth Model Building Blocks

Build a spreadsheet formula of how your business grows, layer by layer, to find your real levers

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Strategy3 steps

The Marketplace Fragmentation Test

A marketplace only works if the market is fragmented and the per-transaction dollars are small enough to keep it in the middle

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Strategy3 steps

Vertical Unbundling Criteria

Only carve a vertical out of a horizontal marketplace if it has high value or frequency and a self-contained network

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People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 6

Dan HockenmaierMentionscurrently working at Fair where he's head of strategy and analytics and through his Consulting business basis one
“today my guest is Dan hockenmeyer”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Lenny RachitskyMentionstoday we've got another very special compilation episode something I've been pulling on more and more with the podcast and the newsletter
“welcome to Lenny's podcast I'm Lenny”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
John CutlerMentionsI talked to John Cuddler actually and he gave me this framework that is like completely stuck in my mind
“I'm excited to chat with my friend John Cutler from podcast sponsor amplitude”
▶ Watch at ~1:30approx.
AshleyMentionshey Ashley head of marketing and flat file
“hey Ashley head of marketing and flat file”
▶ Watch at ~2:30approx.
Jeff JordanMentionsJeff Jordan at a16z who's invested in Airbnb and worked at eBay and Open Table
“maybe Jeff Jordan at a16z who's invested in Airbnb and worked at eBay and Open Table”
▶ Watch at ~25:00approx.
Carla PellicanoMentionsshe led the pricing recommendations team at Airbnb
“your colleague at Fair Carla pelicano she led the pricing recommendations team at Airbnb”
▶ Watch at ~41:30approx.

Resources · 31

Lenny's PodcastCoinedpodcast · Lenny Rachitsky
“welcome to Lenny's podcast I'm Lenny and my goal here is to help you get better at the craft of building and growing products”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Basis OneCoinedcompany · Dan Hockenmaier
“through his Consulting business basis one where he's helped dozens of startups figure out their growth models and growth strategies”
▶ Watch at ~1:00approx.
AmplitudeMentionssoftware · Amplitude
“we've always thought of amplitude as being about supporting the full product Loop”
▶ Watch at ~2:00approx.
FlatfileMentionssoftware · Flatfile
“Flawless data onboarding acts like a catalyst to get them and their customers where they need to go faster”
▶ Watch at ~3:30approx.
ThumbtackUsescompany
“I think my real education on this began at Thumbtack”
▶ Watch at ~4:30approx.
Boston Consulting GroupUsescompany · Bruce Henderson
“I started in Consulting at BCG and then in private Equity”
▶ Watch at ~4:30approx.
FaireMentionscompany
“it's a Marketplace connecting local retailers and independent Brands”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
FaireUsescompany
“I lead the strategy analytics team at fair”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
ExcelMentionssoftware · Microsoft
“it's essentially a formula for your business that often lives in Excel”
▶ Watch at ~7:00approx.
Amazon MarketplaceMentionsproduct · Amazon
“those businesses will generate a bunch of Revenue on the Amazon Marketplace”
▶ Watch at ~11:30approx.
ReforgeRecommendscompany · Brian Balfour
“my top recommendation would be to start with reforge”
▶ Watch at ~15:30approx.
ThumbtackMentionscompany
“it's a local Services Marketplace for people to hire electricians or plumbers or wedding planners”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
AirbnbMentionscompany · Brian Chesky, Joe Gebbia, and Nathan Blecharczyk
“at Airbnb there's like a dive ones or a data dive ones where the data scientist found that same conclusion”
▶ Watch at ~20:30approx.
UberMentionscompany · Uber
“if you take like Lyft or Uber for example a an Uber driver signs up for the service”
▶ Watch at ~22:00approx.
Andreessen HorowitzMentionscompany · Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz
“maybe Jeff Jordan at a16z who's invested in Airbnb and worked at eBay and Open Table”
▶ Watch at ~25:00approx.
EppoMentionssoftware · Eppo
“EPO is a Next Generation a b testing platform built by Airbnb alums for modern growth teams”
▶ Watch at ~27:00approx.
InstacartMentionscompany · Apoorva Mehta, Max Mullen, and Brandon Leonardo
“instacart famously was losing money on every order”
▶ Watch at ~29:00approx.
LyftMentionscompany
“for Uber Lyft wait time is a classic example”
▶ Watch at ~29:30approx.
OpenTableMentionscompany
“there's actually like a classic kind of SAS bootstrap to Marketplace Playbook this is what OpenTable did”
▶ Watch at ~47:30approx.
eBayMentionscompany · eBay
“thinking about eBay as an example they are very horizontal you could buy anything you want on eBay”
▶ Watch at ~49:30approx.
GOATMentionscompany · Eddy Lu and Daishin Sugano
“like goat and stockx or two where they like carved out the sneaker category”
▶ Watch at ~50:00approx.
StockXMentionscompany
“like goat and stockx or two where they like carved out the sneaker category”
▶ Watch at ~50:00approx.
LinkedInMentionswebsite · LinkedIn
“this is the unbundling of Reddit the unbundling of LinkedIn the unbundling of Facebook”
▶ Watch at ~50:30approx.
CraigslistMentionswebsite · Craigslist
“airbnb's example with that they unbundled from Craigslist”
▶ Watch at ~52:00approx.
ZillowMentionscompany · Zillow
“that's like Zillow and Home Advisor they're basically like lead gen”
▶ Watch at ~59:00approx.
HomeAdvisorMentionscompany
“that's like Zillow and Home Advisor they're basically like lead gen”
▶ Watch at ~59:00approx.
DoorDashMentionscompany · DoorDash
“doordash and instacart own Logistics they took over Logistics”
▶ Watch at ~59:30approx.
SeamlessMentionscompany
“doordash did a much better job than the previous model of seamless”
▶ Watch at ~59:30approx.
OpendoorMentionscompany
“people talk about Open Door as a Marketplace but it's not it's an e-commerce website”
▶ Watch at ~1:00:30approx.
SteamMentionssoftware · Valve
“steam the video game marketplaces in this bucket where the thing you care about is suppliers bringing you like amazing creative new things”
▶ Watch at ~1:01:30approx.
EtsyMentionscompany · Etsy
“you have like Etsy and Amazon I think fares in this bucket”
▶ Watch at ~1:01:30approx.

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster23:30

"Our Best Users Do X" Almost Never Works

A common analytical failure mode is noticing that top users do some behavior and trying to push other users to do the same to drive retention. Dan puts little weight on these correlational exercises because something unique about that customer drives the behavior, and he's rarely been able to move a worse cohort into the better one.

The pattern 'best users do X, so make everyone do X' rarely drives retention
There's usually something unique about that customer or their experience causing it
Correlational analyses rarely move a low-value cohort into the high-value one
Focus instead on the real drivers of value and a strong first-run experience

“one of the most common analytical failure modes is this pattern which is our best users do X so why can't we make other users…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 23:30

#retention#analytics#data-science

Myth Buster50:30

Unbundling Marketplaces Is More Overhyped Than People Think

The recurring 'unbundling of Reddit/LinkedIn/Facebook' thesis rarely plays out because it over-focuses on UX improvement and under-focuses on the economics of scale, customer LTV and network effect. At Thumbtack, hundreds of verticalized competitors failed because Thumbtack could upsell across a thousand categories, giving it higher LTV and letting it outbid on SEM. Verticals only work when the sub-segment is very high frequency or high dollar value, or has a self-contained network like rig-up for blue-collar work.

The unbundling thesis over-values UX and under-values scale economics
Thumbtack's cross-category upsell gave higher LTV and won SEM bids against verticals
A vertical wins only if the sub-segment is very high frequency or high dollar value
GOAT and StockX carved out sneakers by solving trust/verification eBay couldn't
Self-contained networks (rig-up for blue-collar work) can escape LinkedIn's pull

“broadly though I think that we over hyped the idea of unbundling”
Dan Hockenmaier · 50:30

“we could upsell customers into a thousand things and so our customer ltu is always higher and we would always win when we were bidding…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 51:30

#marketplaces#unbundling#vertical#network-effects

Hot Take· 2

Hot Take00:00

Running a Marketplace Is Gardening, Not Construction

Dan's core mental model for operating a marketplace: unlike a SaaS product you build linearly, a marketplace is an ecosystem you don't fully understand. Changes to core incentives can trigger effects months later that are hard to trace back. The advice is to tread lightly, especially when something is already working.

SaaS = construction worker (linear building); marketplace = gardener (light touch)
A change in one place can drive a long-term effect two months later
Be very careful playing with core incentives or mechanisms, especially if the marketplace already works

“if you think about running a Marketplace you're basically like a gardener you have to have a very light touch like if you're building a…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 00:00

“the main advice is like to tread lightly when you're messing with the core incentives or mechanisms of the marketplace be very careful particularly if…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 41:30

#marketplaces#operating#incentives

Hot Take34:00

Demand Is the Currency; People Over-Rotate on Supply

Advice about marketplaces tends to over-focus on supply and under-focus on demand, because supply is the product early on and uses more of the product surface. But ultimately demand is the only thing that matters: aggregate the demand and suppliers will always say yes. You should still acquire supply, but only to the extent you understand how it impacts demand.

People over-rotate on supply and are under-focused on demand
Supply feels dominant early because it's the product and uses more product surface
If you aggregate demand, suppliers will always say yes to a profitable customer
Only acquire supply to the extent you understand its impact on demand (liquidity ceiling)

“when you hear advice about where to focus people over rotate on Supply and actually are under focused on demand”
Dan Hockenmaier · 34:00

“demand is the currency and so when you think about trade-offs or how to optimize a business I think taking the perspective of the customer…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 34:30

#marketplaces#demand#supply#strategy

Explainer· 5

Explainer06:00

A Growth Model Is Not a Forecasting Tool

A growth model is an analytical representation of how a business grows, usually in a spreadsheet, valuable because it is very hard to fake. Half the value comes simply from the act of building it, which forces real understanding. It is for opportunity assessment, not for replacing the finance team's forecast.

The model is 'very hard to fake' compared to talking about a business conceptually
50% of the value is simply building it, because it forces you to understand the business
It is not a forecasting tool; output can be highly variable given the assumptions
Best used for opportunity assessment and weighing different bets

“the analytical representation of how the business grows and is typically built in a spreadsheet which has a really nice feature of being very hard…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 06:00

“I think 50 of the value you get from it is simply building the model right like it forces you to understand it”
Dan Hockenmaier · 06:30

#growth-model#strategy#analytics

Explainer26:00

Why Marketplaces Get Better as They Scale

Most businesses acquire marginally worse customers over time, so CAC rises and LTV falls. Marketplaces invert this: as supply liquidity improves, the experience improves, so later cohorts often see CAC go down and LTV go up. This compounding inversion is a key reason marketplaces fit the venture model.

Typical businesses: CAC rises and LTV falls as they scale
Marketplaces: improving liquidity means later cohorts see CAC fall and LTV rise
Hard and capital-intensive to start, but very hard to stop once rolling
Compounding defensibility is why they suit the venture model

“Marketplace is actually the inverse like the supply liquidity is improving the experience is improving so often actually as you see later cohorts and marketplaces…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 26:00

#marketplaces#unit-economics#network-effects

Explainer29:30

Liquidity: Until You're Liquid, Nothing Else Matters

Liquidity measures how reliably the marketplace lets people do the thing they came to do, ideally expressed in a dimension the customer cares about, like Uber wait time or a commerce search-to-fill rate. There's often a magic threshold (around four or five minutes for rideshare) where it clicks. Until a marketplace is liquid, nothing else matters, which is why the advice is to cut scope to one geography or category first.

Liquidity = how often a buyer or seller can do what they came to do
Express it in a dimension customers care about (wait time, fill/conversion rate)
Rideshare has a magic moment around four-to-five-minute wait times
Cut scope to a specific geography or category to generate liquidity before scaling

“there's some Magic Moment around four or five minutes where it really clicks”
Dan Hockenmaier · 29:30

“essentially until you have a liquid Marketplace really nothing else matters and so this should be the primary thing you're focused on defining”
Dan Hockenmaier · 30:00

#marketplaces#liquidity#metrics

Explainer56:00

Fragmentation Is Why Most B2B Marketplaces Fail

B2B marketplaces are rarer partly because there are fewer founders who understand B2B pain, but the deeper reason is lower fragmentation. You need fragmentation for a good marketplace: the more concentrated either side is, the more leverage those players have, the less they need you, and the less they'll pay in commission. High per-transaction dollar amounts also invite disintermediation, since a supplier will just pick up the phone to save tens of thousands.

Fragmentation = number of businesses in a space relative to transaction volume
If 10 companies do 80% of volume, they have their own sales teams and need the marketplace less
Concentrated sides pay lower commissions and are prone to disintermediation
High dollars per transaction make going around the marketplace worth it (unlike a $2-3 rideshare commission)

“the more concentrated either side of your Market is the more leverage they have the less likely they are to need you and the less…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 56:00

#marketplaces#b2b#fragmentation#commission

Explainer58:30

The Future of Marketplaces: Rising Commissions and the Exit From Marketplace Mode

Charting commission against founding year shows a clear up-and-to-the-right trend: newer marketplaces charge more and do more work to justify it. The evolution runs from 1.0 demand aggregators (Zillow, HomeAdvisor) to managed marketplaces that generate trust (Airbnb, Etsy) to heavily managed ones that own part of the value chain (DoorDash logistics, Faire underwriting). At 100% commission you're no longer a marketplace, so the question is which businesses evolve out of the model entirely.

Newer marketplaces charge higher commissions and do more work to justify them
1.0 = lead-gen demand aggregation (Zillow, HomeAdvisor), ~5-10% commission
Managed = trust generation (Airbnb, Etsy); heavily managed = owning value chain (DoorDash, Faire)
The determining variable is how much creativity/differentiation the space needs from suppliers
Commoditized spaces (rideshare with autonomous vehicles) consolidate out of marketplace mode; creative ones (Etsy, Amazon, Faire) stay

“newer marketplaces are charging higher commissions and they're doing more work to justify those commissions”
Dan Hockenmaier · 59:00

“ultimately you're charging 100 commission and you're not a Marketplace anymore”
Dan Hockenmaier · 1:00:30

#marketplaces#future#commission#strategy

Story· 1

Story22:00

Fix the Unlucky First Week: The Uber Driver Example

The biggest retention wins usually come from inflecting the early user experience, not messaging people who are about to churn. Dan uses a rideshare driver who, by luck of the draw, earns a bad hourly rate in their first week and quits, wrongly assuming that's how the platform works. Streamlining and homogenizing that first experience lifts below-average starts to average and improves retention curves.

Biggest retention wins come from the earliest lifecycle, not months later
Look for variability: which new customers are having a bad experience but shouldn't be
A driver with an unlucky low-density or cancelled first week assumes that's the norm and leaves
This is why Uber and Lyft compete on guaranteed first-week/first-month earnings

“some of them just by luck of the draw are going to make a pretty bad hourly rate because like customer canceled on them or…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 22:00

“that driver doesn't know that's not how it works they might think we just I just make three dollars an hour on this platform and…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 22:30

#retention#onboarding#marketplaces#rideshare

Takeaway· 5

Takeaway16:00

Growth Is More Sensitive to Retention Than You'd Guess

One of the first things a growth model reveals is that growth is far more sensitive to retention than intuition suggests, because a healthy retained base feeds referrals, content, and contribution margin. A small retention gain often beats a bigger change elsewhere, meaning teams frequently misallocate product and growth resources.

Retention interacts with referral rate, content generation, and contribution margin
A smaller percentage gain on retention often beats a larger change in another area
Companies may be significantly misallocating product and growth resources as a result

“your growth is much more sensitive to customer retention than you can ever into it”
Dan Hockenmaier · 16:00

#retention#growth-model#prioritization

Takeaway24:30

Don't Chase Churned Users Before Exhausting New Ones

Teams are tempted by resurrection because a huge pool of churned users looks like easy upside. But that pool has already tried the product and decided against it, so they're hard to convince. New users are usually higher leverage; wait to spin up resurrection until earlier-funnel efforts are exhausted.

The churned pool is the group that tried the product and chose not to use it
Winning them back is very hard; new users are usually higher leverage
Delay resurrection efforts until earlier funnel opportunities are exhausted

“the problem is that pool of users is the group of people who has tried the product and decided they don't want to use it…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 24:30

#retention#growth#prioritization

Takeaway32:00

Share of Wallet Is Depth, and Depth Beats Breadth

Share of wallet is how much of a buyer's or seller's total activity in a space runs through your marketplace. Dan would take a 10% GMV lift from deepening current customers over the same lift from new customers, because depth signals future retention and defensibility and makes multi-tenanting less likely.

Share of wallet = the portion of a buyer's or seller's total spend/activity you capture
Higher share of wallet lowers the odds a customer multi-tenants on a rival
It's a measure of depth rather than breadth
10% more wallet from current customers beats 10% GMV from new ones

“I think it's basically a measure of depth rather than breadth and I will take depths every time in a Marketplace”
Dan Hockenmaier · 32:30

#marketplaces#metrics#retention

Takeaway43:30

When Expanding, Adjacency Beats TAM

For marketplaces in massive markets, the size of an adjacent market matters very little because any of them could inflect the business. What matters is how adjacent it is (a proxy for whether you can actually win it) and whether it accentuates your network effect by reusing the same supplier or serving the same customer's demand, as Uber Eats does.

Beyond a point, TAM matters little; all the adjacent bets are big enough to inflect the curve
Prioritize adjacency as a proxy for whether your current model will work there
Instacart into convenience stores fits its model better than traditional retail
Accentuate the network effect: Uber Eats reuses drivers and serves the same customers

“actually be on a certain point Tam are the size of the market actually matters very little because these are all big enough that they…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 43:30

“for Uber it makes all the sense in the world to have ubereats because one they're the same drivers in many cases but two the…”
Dan Hockenmaier · 44:00

#marketplaces#expansion#network-effects#strategy

Takeaway45:00

Don't Let Go-To-Market Get Ahead of Product

Because liquidity is a race, marketplaces often pour money into go-to-market and incentives to bootstrap a new market. Dan has learned repeatedly that the real winner is whoever delivers an incredible end-to-end customer experience first, even for a smaller number of customers, because that creates the flame that lets you expand. Keep product and go-to-market in lockstep.

Spending big on GTM and incentives to bootstrap liquidity matters but isn't the main thing
The winner delivers a great end-to-end experience first, even for fewer customers
A loved experience creates retention, word of mouth, and a base to expand from
Don't let go-to-market get too far ahead of product

“it's who can deliver an incredible end-to-end customer experience first even if for a smaller number of customers because that's what creates the flame”
Dan Hockenmaier · 45:30

“don't let go to market get too far ahead of product you need to keep those two pieces in lockstep as you're expanding”
Dan Hockenmaier · 45:30

#marketplaces#expansion#product#go-to-market

Key ideas

Frameworks in this episode

Adjacency-and-Network Expansion Test

Dual-Sided ROI Equation

Homogenize the Early Experience for Retention

The Four Marketplace Health Metrics

The Gardener Mindset for Marketplaces

The Growth Model Building Blocks

The Marketplace Fragmentation Test

Vertical Unbundling Criteria

People & resources mentioned

People · 6

Resources · 31

Insights & moments

⚡Myth Buster· 2

"Our Best Users Do X" Almost Never Works

Unbundling Marketplaces Is More Overhyped Than People Think

◆Hot Take· 2

Running a Marketplace Is Gardening, Not Construction

Demand Is the Currency; People Over-Rotate on Supply

✶Explainer· 5

A Growth Model Is Not a Forecasting Tool

Why Marketplaces Get Better as They Scale

Liquidity: Until You're Liquid, Nothing Else Matters

Fragmentation Is Why Most B2B Marketplaces Fail

The Future of Marketplaces: Rising Commissions and the Exit From Marketplace Mode

❝Story· 1

Fix the Unlucky First Week: The Uber Driver Example

▲Takeaway· 5

Growth Is More Sensitive to Retention Than You'd Guess

Don't Chase Churned Users Before Exhausting New Ones

Share of Wallet Is Depth, and Depth Beats Breadth

When Expanding, Adjacency Beats TAM

Don't Let Go-To-Market Get Ahead of Product

Myth Buster· 2

Hot Take· 2

Explainer· 5

Story· 1

Takeaway· 5