Thinking Gray
Defer black-or-white judgments about decisions and people until the last responsible moment.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 85%
Thinking gray is the discipline of not deciding for as long as you responsibly can. We are pressured to snap to black-or-white verdicts about problems and people, but many decisions do not actually have to be made yet. Deferring preserves the possibility of a better decision later with more information. It applies to systems and product choices and to how you judge people.
Origin
Originated by Steven B. Sample, former USC president, in his book 'The Contrarian's Guide to Leadership.' Austin Hay cites it as the principle from that book that stuck with him most.
Core principles
- 01We are constantly forced to think black or white and decide quickly.
- 02In reality many decisions do not have to be made now; you can let them sit.
- 03Deferring requires patience, which most people (including Hay) find hard.
- 04Leaving space to decide later opens the possibility of a better future decision.
How to run it
- 1
Question whether a decision is actually forced
When you feel pressure to decide (a boss, an OKR, a complaint, felt pain), ask whether you genuinely have to decide right now or whether it only feels that way.
- 2
Defer to the last responsible moment
If the decision is not truly forced, deliberately let it sit rather than resolving it prematurely, holding the gray instead of collapsing to black or white.
Pro tip Apply the same grace to judging people: resist snap 'do I like this person' verdicts after meeting them once or twice.
Watch out Some decisions genuinely are forced (e.g. a hire/no-hire interview call); recognize those and decide.
- 3
Decide with more information when forced
When the moment to decide finally arrives, act on the richer information that deferral has let you accumulate, yielding a better decision than a premature one.
In the wild
Hay notes the instinct, after meeting someone once or twice, to immediately decide 'do I like this person, do I want to work with them.' Thinking gray gives the grace to not decide about people until you actually have to.
→ Holding off on the judgment opens the possibility of a better, more accurate read of the person later.
Common mistakes
Deciding because you feel pressure, not because it is required
Acting on a boss, OKR, or complaint as if a decision is forced when it is not collapses the gray prematurely and forecloses a better decision you could have made later with more information.
Snap-judging people after one or two meetings
Rushing to a like/dislike verdict about a colleague on thin evidence locks in a shortcut that may be wrong, when the situation rarely requires deciding right then.
Is it for you?
Best for
Systems thinkers, product and martech leaders, and managers facing pressure to make premature calls on reversible decisions or on people.
Not ideal for
Genuinely time-boxed, irreversible decisions (like a hiring yes/no) where deferral is not an option.
From the transcript
“Steven B sample he wrote a book called The the contrarians guide to leadership”
“the concept of thinking gray which is actually to not decide for as long as you possibly can before you have to decide”
“by leaving yourself to have space to decide you actually open up the possibility that in the future you'll make a better decision”
From the episode
The ultimate guide to Martech
Austin Hay (Reforge, Ramp, Runway)