Opinion-Based Decisions for 1.0 Products
For a first-of-its-kind product, empower a tiny 'tastemaker' team to make gut calls — data can't yet exist.
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 94%
When building a 1.0 in a new category, there are almost no analogs to draw data from, so most decisions must be opinion-based rather than data-driven. Fadell argues you need a very small set of 'tastemakers' empowered to make those calls — a benevolent dictatorship — backed by an informed gut built from expert input and prototyping, and the willingness to be wrong and correct later.
Origin
Tony Fadell's framework from his book Build, drawn from making 1.0 decisions at Apple (iPod, iPhone) and Nest; he references Steve Jobs as the archetypal opinion-based decision-maker.
Core principles
- 01A 1.0 in a new category has few analogs, so data-driven decisions either copy someone else or produce mere data, not a differentiated product
- 02Opinion-based decisions must be owned by one or a very small set of empowered people
- 03The gut must be informed — built from expert questions, refinement, and prototyping, not woken-up-one-morning whim
- 04Consumers cannot give useful feedback on a 1.0 until they see it whole — marketing, features, ecosystem — and spend their own money
- 05Hiring consultants and user studies to 'cover your ass' with data is avoidance of the real work
How to run it
- 1
Classify the decision: data or opinion
Determine whether a real analog exists to draw data from. If you're doing a genuine 1.0, accept that most decisions will be opinion-based and cannot be outsourced to data.
Watch out Forcing data-driven decisions on a 1.0 either copies a competitor or yields undifferentiated 'just data.'
- 2
Appoint a tiny tastemaker team
Designate one, two, or a very small set of people authorized to make the opinion-based calls and carry a 1.0 from a blank whiteboard to an actual spec. State openly that this is a benevolent dictatorship.
- 3
Build the informed gut
Gather a lot of informed judgment from the experts around you — ask questions, refine, prototype. The decision is the end of real work, not a spontaneous whim.
Pro tip Gather targeted data where you can (as with the iPhone keyboard tests) to feed the gut, even when the final call is still opinion.
- 4
Articulate the decision and align the team
Because the rest of the team can't see what the tastemakers see, be very articulate about what the decision is, why, and how it affects the market. Aim to move everyone in the same direction; only resort to being unkind if the team is fully against it.
Pro tip In B2C you must visualize the entire product and ecosystem — marketing, discovery, feature set, usage — before you can even make the call.
Watch out B2C is the hardest context: consumers only form an opinion once they see the full product through marketing and spend real money.
- 5
Own being wrong
Commit to the decision knowing you may be wrong, and take the heat to correct it later. That ownership is the job of a great product leader doing something innovative.
In the wild
Data on virtual vs. physical keyboards showed pros and cons on both sides and was not clear. Fadell ran typing-speed and error-rate tests over months to build an informed gut that virtual could be 'good enough.' The data didn't resolve it, so Steve Jobs made the opinion-based call — 'We are going this way' — and told dissenters to leave the project.
→ The virtual keyboard shipped and defined the iPhone; the decision could only be made on informed opinion, not conclusive data.
Fadell describes watching major corporations hire consultants and run user studies without buying the product or having full context, gathering data purely so a leader or board feels safe that a 1.0 will succeed — instead of making the hard opinion-based call.
→ They avoid the real work and fail to produce differentiated 1.0 products.
Common mistakes
Outsourcing 1.0 calls to data and consultants
Because no analog exists, gathered 'data' either copies a competitor or is meaningless — it becomes ass-covering, not decision-making. The differentiated call still has to be made on informed opinion.
Expecting consumers to validate a 1.0 before it's whole
Consumers can only form a real opinion once they see the full product through marketing and spend their own money. Asking them to critique an unshipped, context-free 1.0 yields nothing usable.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders and product leaders building a genuinely new category product where no comparable data exists
Not ideal for
Mature products with rich analogs and A/B-testable decisions, where data-driven choices outperform gut
From the transcript
“if most of your decisions are going to be opinion-based decisions for a 1.0, you have to have one or two or a very, very…”
“for lack of a better word, tastemakers”
“I'm sorry, this is a benevolent dictatorship. This is what's going to happen, and this is the vision”
“So, they're just kind of covering their ass with data, and not really doing the hard work”
“yes, I might be wrong, or we as the opinion based decision makers are wrong, and we will correct it later. And we'll take the…”
From the episode
Father of the iPod and iPhone on building taste, judgment, and creativity in the AI era
Tony Fadell