Gut as a Type of Data
Treat intuition as a legitimate data point you must articulate objectively, not a mandate you impose
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~ongoing to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 92%
In a large organization you can't win decisions by saying 'I believe this, so do it.' Maya reframes gut instinct as one valid type of data among many, and insists you make it as objective and defensible as any metric — by naming the experience, user anecdotes, and pattern-matching behind it — so you can influence stakeholders instead of dragging them through something they don't believe.
Origin
Maya Prohovnik's operating philosophy, developed moving from a 20-person startup (Anchor) into Spotify, a large org requiring cross-team influence.
Core principles
- 01There are right and wrong times for gut vs. data, and multiple kinds of data
- 02Gut is a valid data point — but only if you can explain why it's firing
- 03Being gut-driven is not the same as 'I told you so' or forcing a call
- 04The more types of data you stack behind a view, the more convincing and more right you are
How to run it
- 1
Recognize the moment as gut-appropriate
Distinguish decisions where running the same insights process every time adds nothing from ones where a hypothesis and instinct should lead. Don't mechanically apply the standard research playbook to everything.
Pro tip Use data to help form and understand the hypothesis first, then run targeted user research to test it.
Watch out Believing you can rely solely on data is where people get into trouble.
- 2
Articulate why your gut is firing — objectively
Instead of asserting authority, translate the instinct into defensible inputs: years of similar experience, your own user-testing, and specific user stories and anecdotes that back it up.
Pro tip Frame it explicitly as 'this is my gut, and here's the evidence shape behind it' so it's taken seriously as a data point.
Watch out 'We're doing it this way even if you disagree' dooms the project — you can't drag people through something they don't believe in.
- 3
Set success metrics before launch
Even a gut-led bet needs defined success metrics so you know what you're looking for at launch and can follow up honestly.
In the wild
Anchor 1.0 (voice-messaging/social audio) had retained, growing, in-love users telling founders there was no problem. Maya and CEO Mike felt it would never be big enough to hit their democratize-audio mission, and made the call to rebuild 'pretty much just on gut.'
→ After launching 2.0, numbers started shooting up and more kinds of people used it the way they'd always imagined.
Common mistakes
Using gut as a mandate
Saying 'I believe this so you have to do it' in a large org immediately dooms projects — stakeholders who don't believe won't execute well.
Relying solely on data
Treating the standard insights process as the only valid input strips out intuition and leads to building things just to build them, disconnected from the end user.
Is it for you?
Best for
Product leaders who must influence cross-functional stakeholders they don't directly manage
Not ideal for
Situations where strong, clear data already exists and gut is being used to override it without articulable reasoning
From the transcript
“I would think of your gut actually as a type of data and I think it's a totally valid one”
“being gut driven isn't the same as just saying to people I Told You So”
“I try to do is always still as objectively as possible explain why my gut is feeling that way”
From the episode
Building Anchor, selling to Spotify, and lessons learned
Maya Prohovnik (Spotify’s Head of Podcast Product)