Go From Strength to Strength (Don't Design by TAM)
Bet on the trend that expands the market, not the market size that exists today.
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 85%
A contrarian market-selection heuristic: don't kill or size opportunities purely by today's total addressable market, because the categories worth building often create their own market as a trend plays out. Instead, build from your genuine strengths and get the directional trend right. Use it when evaluating whether an idea is 'too small' to pursue.
Origin
Field noted that at Figma's founding the Bureau of Labor Statistics listed only ~250,000 designers worldwide, implying no market. Figma bet the trend right: as software exploded and design became the differentiator, the number of people who care about design grew vertically, expanding the TAM that never existed on paper.
Core principles
- 01TAM is a snapshot; the industries worth entering are often about to change.
- 02Get the trend right and the market grows into the opportunity.
- 03Go from strength to strength rather than chasing the next biggest TAM.
- 04Value migrates up the stack over time; position where it is heading.
How to run it
- 1
Reject the static TAM verdict
When data says a market is too small, treat that as a point-in-time reading, not a permanent ceiling.
Watch out This is not license to invent any market; it works when a real trend is expanding demand.
- 2
Identify the underlying trend
Ask whether a structural shift (more software, rising design expectations, value moving up the stack) will grow the number of people who need this.
Pro tip Look for where consumer expectations are rising, then reason that all software must follow.
- 3
Build from genuine strength
Choose the expansion that plays to what you are already exceptional at, rather than the one with the largest spreadsheet TAM.
In the wild
Labor statistics said there were only about 250,000 designers in the world when Figma started, implying a tiny market. Figma bet that design was becoming how software wins or loses, so the number of people who care about design would rise sharply, expanding the market itself.
→ Design became a mainstream differentiator and Figma's addressable market grew far beyond the original count.
Common mistakes
Sorting every decision by biggest TAM
Obsessing over the next largest addressable market pushes you away from your strengths and toward crowded, static categories.
Assuming any market can be willed into existence
The heuristic only works when a real trend is expanding demand; without the trend, a small market stays small.
Is it for you?
Best for
Founders evaluating a category that today looks too niche but sits on a rising structural trend.
Not ideal for
Opportunities with no expanding trend behind them, where today's small TAM is the real TAM.
From the transcript
“you can't constrain by always sorting designing by TAM we learn that very much from Figma”
“But we got the trend right and the number of designers rapidly increased.”
“you have to go from strength to strength”
From the episode
Figma’s CEO: Why AI makes design, craft, and quality the new moat for startups
Dylan Field