The Decade Litmus Test
Before starting a company, ask if you can see yourself working on it for a decade — and start it as an experiment
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 3
- Confidence
- 88%
Hoover offers a personal gut-check for the 'should I start a company?' decision. Rather than treating startup formation as the default first move, he advises framing early work as an experiment and using a ten-year horizon as a litmus test for genuine conviction.
Origin
Ryan Hoover, reflecting on how Product Hunt began as a newsletter side project he ran for four to five months before incorporating.
Core principles
- 01In tech bubbles, 'have idea, raise money' is a dangerous default
- 02An experiment's goal is to learn, not to succeed
- 03A decade line-of-sight tests whether you truly care enough
- 04Most startups fail before a decade — the test is about conviction, not prediction
How to run it
- 1
Start as an experiment, not a startup
Frame the early work as an experiment whose purpose is to learn whether people want the thing — not to be a 'success.' Tinker and build before declaring it a company.
Pro tip Naming it an experiment lowers the stakes and keeps you adapting based on what you learn.
Watch out Don't skip straight to 'I need to start a startup' without tinkering and building first.
- 2
Apply the decade line-of-sight test
Ask yourself: can I see myself working on this for a decade? Use it as a litmus test for whether you care about this enough to endure the difficulty.
Pro tip You probably won't actually work on it for ten years — the value is in whether the ten-year commitment excites you today.
- 3
Interrogate whether you even need to raise
Separately ask what raising money is actually for. If you can't articulate a clear reason (hire, no personal capital, no realistic alternative), reconsider raising at all.
Pro tip Raising changes the treadmill — seed vs Series A/B/C carry different expectations you're signing up for.
Watch out As a founder/CEO you can't easily give two weeks' notice and leave — the commitment is hard to exit.
In the wild
'it was a side project in the beginning it wasn't actually intended to be a startup at all ... it was about four to five months before we even incorporated' — during which Hoover deliberately weighed whether it was venture-backable and worth years of his life.
→ The experiment framing let traction and conviction build before committing to the startup path.
Common mistakes
Raising with no clear reason
Some founders default to raising money without being able to say what it's for; without a concrete need (hiring, no capital), raising adds obligations without a purpose.
Treating startup formation as the first step
Skipping tinkering and experimentation to immediately 'start a startup' commits you to a hard, hard-to-exit path before you've learned whether people want the thing.
Is it for you?
Best for
People weighing whether to turn a side project or idea into a funded company
Not ideal for
Founders in winner-take-all markets (e.g. Uber/Lyft dynamics) where raising a war chest fast is effectively mandatory
From the transcript
“my rule of thumb is a decade just do you see yourself working on this for a decade”
“we call it an experiment and that framing i think is for me has always been helpful because it's an experiment is really not about…”
“they skip to that step without just tinkering and building”
“why do you need to raise money like what is it for”
From the episode
How to launch and grow your product
Ryan Hoover of Product Hunt and Weekend Fund