2x Activation Energy for Change
A new bet must grow at a multiple of your baseline to matter—don't dribble it in.
- Difficulty
- Moderate
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 4
- Confidence
- —
To make something new take hold on top of an existing business, you must give it 2x-plus the activation energy. A new bet has to grow at a multiple of the baseline's growth rate to catch up and actually show up in the numbers and for customers. People make the mistake of dipping their toes in and adding the new thing super-incrementally. The nuance: you still can't skip steps — start with a small team getting fit — but once fit appears you must be very quick to support it and inject activation energy, rather than staying incremental. New bets take longer to pay off than people expect because of the inertia of the existing machine, and positioning/message changes take years for customers to absorb.
Origin
Balfour's own lesson, chosen as especially relevant to the current climate of startups layering on new bets; illustrated with Airbnb Trips and HubSpot's repositioning.
Core principles
- 01A new bet must outgrow the baseline by a multiple to register.
- 02Don't skip steps — start small and get fit first.
- 03Once fit appears, inject energy fast, not incrementally.
- 04Positioning changes take years for customers to absorb.
How to run it
- 1
Quantify the baseline
Establish the existing business or channel's baseline growth rate that the new bet must overcome.
- 2
Set a multiple-of-baseline bar
Require the new thing to grow at a multiple of the baseline so it can catch up and show up in the numbers and for customers.
Watch out Dabbling incrementally guarantees the new bet never catches the baseline.
- 3
Start small to find fit
Begin with a small team to get fit on the new thing — you can move through steps faster with an existing business behind you, but you can't skip them.
Watch out Piling too much money/people/voices on too early is as damaging as being too incremental.
- 4
Inject energy fast once fit appears
As soon as fit shows, be quick to support it with real activation energy rather than continuing to dip your toes in.
Pro tip Expect new bets to take longer to pay off than intuition suggests, given the incumbent's inertia.
Watch out Repositioning takes years — customers keep the old mental model long after launch.
In the wild
When Airbnb launched Trips, instead of a small mention, Brian Chesky made the homepage lead with Trips — you could still book a home, but the bold shift forced users to learn the new offering despite short-term search friction on homes.
→ The disruptive placement injected the activation energy needed for the new bet to register.
Years after adding a CRM and seven products, many still call HubSpot a 'marketing automation' company, because eight years of investment built that identity before the platform message.
→ Illustrates that overcoming inertia and repositioning takes years of sustained energy.
Common mistakes
Dabbling incrementally
Dipping toes into a new bet and adding energy super-incrementally means it never grows fast enough to overtake the baseline and matter.
Overloading before fit
Piling too much capital and too many people onto a barely-working new thing tends to make it worse, not better.
Is it for you?
Best for
Leaders layering a new channel, product or positioning onto an existing business.
Not ideal for
Bets with no existing baseline to overcome (pure zero-to-one).
From the episode
Brian Balfour: 10 lessons on career, growth, and life