Timothy Davis (Shopify)28 July 2024

The ultimate guide to performance marketing

9Frameworks

16Insights

Episode overview

Lenny Rachitsky speaks with Shopify performance-marketing leader Timothy Davis about deciding when and where to invest in paid growth. Davis explains “signs of life” tests, platform selection, creative testing, attribution, incrementality, and the operational cadence required to improve campaigns. He also outlines an early performance-marketing team—starting with a data-driven growth marketer, followed by creative and data-science support—and emphasizes finding signal amid noisy platform metrics.

Key ideas

Paid search is broadly applicable because it responds to explicit user intent, while display, social, and video advertising are more disruptive and depend strongly on audience and creative fit.
Run small “signs of life” tests using first-party customer data and tightly matched lookalike audiences before investing heavily in a platform.
Creative cannot simply be copied across channels: each platform has distinct user behavior, context, formats, and expectations.
Start with Google Search, then consider Meta and YouTube; use audience data and economics to decide whether channels such as TikTok or LinkedIn merit investment.
Campaign analysis should isolate metrics tied to the campaign objective and distinguish meaningful signals from abundant but distracting platform data.
Multi-touch, time-decay attribution is useful, but geo experiments and conversion-lift tests are needed to estimate true incremental impact.
A growing in-house team should begin with a data-driven growth marketer, then add creative capability and a dedicated data scientist as scale and workload justify them.
Use forward thinking and backward planning: define what success on a channel means, then establish the tests, creative, spend, and milestones needed to reach it.

Transcript available · source text is retained privately and is not published

Frameworks in this episode

Marketing4 steps

Ad Strength Hole-in-the-Ship Diagnostic

Use Google's brand vs non-brand ad-strength report to find the one fix that lifts the whole account

Read →

Leadership4 steps

Capacity-Red Headcount Justification

Add headcount only when a days-committed-vs-days-in-quarter calculator stays red after cutting low-value work

Read →

Marketing4 steps

Incrementality via Conversion Lift & Geo Tests

Prove paid actually caused growth by withholding ads from a control group and measuring the lift

Read →

Marketing5 steps

Paid Channel Sequencing Ladder

The order to adopt paid platforms: user-driven search first, disruptive media next, expensive targeting last

Read →

Marketing3 steps

Signal vs Noise Metric Selection

Let the campaign's single goal decide which metric is signal — everything else is noise

Read →

Marketing4 steps

The Ops Cadence Spreadsheet

A rocks-and-pebbles spreadsheet that assigns every account task a defined weekly/biweekly/monthly rhythm

Read →

Marketing4 steps

The Signs of Life Test

Spend a tiny budget on a new platform to detect a positive signal before committing to a full campaign

Read →

Leadership3 steps

The Three-Hire Performance Team Sequence

Build a paid team in order: data-driven generalist, then creative, then a dedicated data scientist

Read →

Marketing3 steps

The True Competition Metric

Use auction-insights math to tell a genuine competitive threat from a harmless close-variant accident

Read →

People & resources mentioned

Attributed to the moment in the episode. Timestamps are approximate.

People · 8

Timothy DavisMentionsTimothy has led Performance Marketing for all of Shopify for the past 2 and a half years
“Timothy has led Performance Marketing for all of Shopify for the past 2 and a half years”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Lenny RachitskyMentionstoday we've got another very special compilation episode something I've been pulling on more and more with the podcast and the newsletter
“today my guest is Timothy Davis”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
Christina GilbertMentionsI'm excited to chat with Christina Gilbert, the founder of OneSchema
“Christina Gilbert the founder of one schema”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
Nate SilverCoinedthere was a a book written by uh Nate silver called the signal and the noise
“there was a a book written by uh Nate silver called the signal and the noise”
▶ Watch at ~40:30approx.
FranciscoMentionsshout out to FR Francisco at Google
“shout out to FR Francisco at Google”
▶ Watch at ~54:00approx.
Jacob BrownCoinedthe writer there his name is Jacob Brown
“the writer there his name is Jacob Brown this is what he calls the true competition metric”
▶ Watch at ~59:00approx.
SashaMentionswe have people fully dedicated to Mobile on the team and I had reached out to uh Sasha who's on the team
“we have people fully dedicated to Mobile on the team and I had reached out to uh Sasha who's on the team”
▶ Watch at ~1:25:00approx.
Casey WintersMentionswho's had the most influence on you in your career well we mentioned him before so I gotta bring him back up Casey Winters
“who's had the most influence on you in your career well we mentioned him before so I gotta bring him back up Casey Winters”
▶ Watch at ~1:39:30approx.

Resources · 58

PinterestMentionscompany · Pinterest
“has helped companies like Pinterest LinkedIn redin and Eventbrite Kickstart and scale the performance marketing team”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
ShopifyMentionscompany · Shopify
“Timothy has led Performance Marketing for all of Shopify for the past 2 and a half years”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
EventbriteMentionscompany · Eventbrite
“has helped companies like Pinterest LinkedIn redin and Eventbrite Kickstart and scale the performance marketing team”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
RedditMentionswebsite · Steve Huffman, Alexis Ohanian, and Aaron Swartz
“has helped companies like Pinterest LinkedIn redin and Eventbrite Kickstart and scale the performance marketing team”
▶ Watch at ~0:30approx.
BuildBetterMentionssoftware · BuildBetter
“this episode is brought to you by build better”
▶ Watch at ~3:30approx.
OneSchema FileFeedsMentionsproduct · OneSchema
“we just launched one scheme of file feeds which allows you to build an integration with any system in 15 minutes”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
WatershedMentionscompany
“you now work with some of my favorite companies like ramp vantis scale and Watershed”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
Scale AIMentionscompany · Alex Wang and Lucy Guo
“you now work with some of my favorite companies like ramp vantis scale and Watershed”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
VantaMentionssoftware · Christina Cacioppo
“you now work with some of my favorite companies like ramp vantis scale and Watershed”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
RampMentionscompany · Eric Glyman and Karim Atiyeh
“you now work with some of my favorite companies like ramp vantis scale and Watershed”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
OneSchemaMentionssoftware · Christina Gilbert
“what is the latest with one schema”
▶ Watch at ~5:00approx.
Credit KarmaMentionscompany
“I always think of booking.com in Credit Karma and just like most of their growth came from Paid growth”
▶ Watch at ~8:00approx.
Booking.comMentionscompany
“I always think of booking.com in Credit Karma and just like most of their growth came from Paid growth”
▶ Watch at ~8:00approx.
SnapchatMentionssoftware · Snap Inc.
“that content could be used on something similar like Snap see how that does for you”
▶ Watch at ~8:30approx.
Google AnalyticsUsessoftware · Google
“you could also lean into your Google analytics or whatever Analytics tool you are using”
▶ Watch at ~9:00approx.
Hair StoryMentionscompany
“there was a company I worked with a couple years ago called hair story”
▶ Watch at ~9:30approx.
IpsyMentionscompany
“there was a company I worked with a couple years ago called hair story uh and Ipsy”
▶ Watch at ~9:30approx.
Google Display NetworkMentionsproduct · Google
“Google is YouTube Google is Google search gdn Google Display Network”
▶ Watch at ~19:00approx.
GoogleRecommendscompany · Google
“I would say start with Google search then get into meta”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
MetaRecommendscompany
“I would say start with Google search then get into meta”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
FacebookMentionscompany · Meta
“meta contains both Facebook and Instagram”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
InstagramMentionssoftware · Meta
“meta contains both Facebook and Instagram”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
TikTokRecommendssoftware · ByteDance
“if you do see users on Tik Tok definitely go after those”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
YouTubeRecommendswebsite · Google
“if you have video available definitely get into YouTube”
▶ Watch at ~19:30approx.
SoftLayerMentionscompany
“I worked at a company called soft layer soft layer was acquired by IBM”
▶ Watch at ~20:30approx.
IBMMentionscompany
“soft layer was acquired by IBM because they were trying to build out their Cloud portfolio”
▶ Watch at ~20:30approx.
Coca-Cola FreestyleMentionsproduct · Coca-Cola
“you know those Coke free Styles where you can pick whatever drink you want and put the flavor in it”
▶ Watch at ~21:00approx.
Coca-ColaMentionscompany
“we were trying to get uh Coca-Cola as one of our clients”
▶ Watch at ~21:00approx.
Amazon Web ServicesMentionscompany · Amazon
“it was between us AWS and Microsoft”
▶ Watch at ~22:00approx.
MicrosoftMentionscompany · Bill Gates and Paul Allen
“it was between us AWS and Microsoft”
▶ Watch at ~22:00approx.
LinkedInRecommendswebsite · LinkedIn
“you could be an Enterprise level company and it does make sense to start with LinkedIn for sure”
▶ Watch at ~24:00approx.
XMentionswebsite · X Corp.
“Reddit or snap or X or I don't know anything along those lines”
▶ Watch at ~26:00approx.
monday.comMentionssoftware · monday.com
“say Lenny you and I create a product that is similar to monday.com”
▶ Watch at ~29:30approx.
The Signal and the NoiseMentionsbook · Nate Silver
“there was a a book written by uh Nate silver called the signal and the noise”
▶ Watch at ~40:30approx.
Google AdsUsessoftware · Google
“I can teach anyone how to do Google ads I can teach anyone how to do meta ads”
▶ Watch at ~42:00approx.
EppoMentionssoftware · Eppo
“this episode is brought to you by EPO EPO is a Next Generation AB testing and feature manag M platform”
▶ Watch at ~42:30approx.
SnowflakeMentionscompany · Snowflake Inc.
“built by Al Lums of Airbnb and snowflake”
▶ Watch at ~42:30approx.
AirbnbMentionscompany · Brian Chesky, Joe Gebbia, and Nathan Blecharczyk
“built by Al Lums of Airbnb and snowflake”
▶ Watch at ~42:30approx.
PPC HeroRecommendswebsite
“there's uh a website called PPC hero um what I usually tell people is terrible name great content”
▶ Watch at ~58:30approx.
True Competition MetricCoinedother · Jacob Brown
“the writer there his name is Jacob Brown this is what he calls the true competition metric”
▶ Watch at ~59:00approx.
SemrushMentionssoftware
“using tool like sem Rush that ultimately is uh saying oh this this person's appearing above you”
▶ Watch at ~1:00:30approx.
NetflixMentionscompany · Netflix
“numerous companies like Netflix and eBay have done studies to get an understanding of the incrementality of paid advertising campaigns”
▶ Watch at ~1:03:00approx.
eBayMentionscompany · eBay
“numerous companies like Netflix and eBay have done studies to get an understanding of the incrementality of paid advertising campaigns”
▶ Watch at ~1:03:00approx.
ADTMentionscompany
“perfect example I was working with ADT you know the security company”
▶ Watch at ~1:12:30approx.
The First 90 DaysMentionsbook
“there's a book called uh I think it's the first 90 days”
▶ Watch at ~1:20:30approx.
Dollar Shave ClubMentionscompany
“do you remember Dollar Shave Club absolutely their video”
▶ Watch at ~1:26:00approx.
Daily StoicRecommendsbook
“daily stoic by far uh a book I read every day”
▶ Watch at ~1:37:00approx.
X-Men '97Recommendstv show
“X-Men 97 thoroughly enjoyed that”
▶ Watch at ~1:37:30approx.
RRRRecommendsfilm
“I actually never watched rrr when it first came out uh highly recommend that”
▶ Watch at ~1:37:30approx.
Great by ChoiceRecommendsbook
“great by choice uh is another uh good one”
▶ Watch at ~1:37:30approx.
Deep WorkRecommendsbook · Cal Newport
“great by choice uh is another uh good one and uh deep work”
▶ Watch at ~1:37:30approx.
Welcome to WrexhamRecommendsdocumentary
“welcome to rexam yeah and billion dollar code”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
The PlaylistRecommendstv show
“the playlist uh which is about Spotify”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
SpotifyMentionssoftware · Spotify
“the playlist uh which is about Spotify”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
The Billion Dollar CodeRecommendstv show
“billion dollar code also on Netflix about uh Google uh Earth very interesting”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
Google EarthMentionssoftware · Google
“billion dollar code also on Netflix about uh Google uh Earth very interesting”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:00approx.
Magic MindUsesproduct
“this product uh I used to use called Magic mind it's a little shot every single day”
▶ Watch at ~1:38:30approx.
Lenny's PodcastCoinedpodcast · Lenny Rachitsky
“thank you so much for listening if you found this valuable you can subscribe to the show”
▶ Watch at ~1:41:30approx.

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Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Hot Take· 4

Hot Take06:30

Why Paid Search Should Be a Baseline for Almost Every Company

Timothy argues paid is now for everyone because the major platforms have become pay-for-play — Google's first four spots and AI results push organic far down the page, and meta requires promoted posts just to be seen. He distinguishes paid search as user-driven (someone types a relevant keyword) versus disruptive media like meta and YouTube ads. His baseline recommendation: nearly every business should run paid search.

Google's paid spots plus AI push organic listings far down the page
Meta is 'almost pay for play' — promoted posts are needed to be seen
Even influencer marketing counts as a paid component
Paid search is user-driven: the user types a keyword for the ad to show
Other channels (meta, YouTube) are disruptive media, not user-driven

“I would say paid is for everyone”
Timothy Davis · 06:30

“paid search is user driven you have to type in a relevant keyword for your ad to show anything else is more disruptive media”
Timothy Davis · 07:00

#paid-search#performance-marketing#channels#strategy

Hot Take18:00

Give Yourself Grace: You're Either Winning or Learning

Timothy pushes back on the pressure to succeed at every experiment. Because each platform is unique with different user behavior, testing something new means learning its bells and whistles, and things won't always work. He advocates creating an environment where it's okay to fail — as long as you're learning from it, you'll be okay.

Companies often put pressure or a need to succeed on every experiment
Each platform is unique — new tests mean learning its functionality
Frame failure as winning-or-learning, not failure
Give yourself grace; understand it may not work

“I believe in creating an environment where it's okay to fail because we're either winning or we're learning”
Timothy Davis · 18:00

#experimentation#mindset#culture#testing

Hot Take33:30

Why Agencies Underperform: Playbooks Instead of Getting in the Weeds

Asked why he can crush an agency's performance within a month of taking over, Timothy says agencies run generic playbooks — 'this is a B2C company, copy-paste, done' — and aren't willing to get deep into the weeds. They manage 50+ clients, so they turn on automated bidding, run search-query reports, and move on, rather than testing landing pages, examining conversions, or partnering with PMM to improve the funnel.

Agencies apply generic playbooks per company archetype
They touch only what they think they need to, spread across ~50 clients
They lean on automated bidding and basic reports, then move on
They rarely test landing pages or dig into conversion steps
Going deep — e.g. cutting a 5-step flow to 3 — is where the wins are

“I think agencies have playbooks”
Timothy Davis · 33:30

“this is what we're doing copy paste done move on”
Timothy Davis · 34:00

#agencies#conversion#process#management

Hot Take56:30

Impression Share Is Ego Marketing — Optimize for Click Share Instead

Timothy contends that chasing impression share — being on top of the page all the time — is 'ego marketing.' The goal isn't showing as often as possible to everyone; it's showing to the right person as often as possible. He measures this with Click Share, and when you talk to the right people, Google rewards you with top-of-page placement anyway (visible via top impression share).

Wanting to be number one all the time is ego marketing
Aim to show to the right user, not to everyone as often as possible
Click Share measures whether you're reaching the right people
Serving the right users earns top-of-page placement from Google
In a real 2023 test, impression share held flat while Click Share rose

“that's kind of like ego marketing I want to be number one I want to be there”
Timothy Davis · 56:30

“instead of thinking about being on top of the page you should think about serving the right user”
Timothy Davis · 57:00

#google-ads#metrics#click-share#optimization

Explainer· 5

Explainer12:30

How to Test Lookalike Audiences From 1% to 10%

Timothy explains the number one tactic for a signs-of-life test: start with your own customer data loaded into the platform to build lookalikes. On meta you can build ad sets from a 1% match (most tightly correlated to your customers) up to a 10% match (a much wider base). With a limited budget, start at 1% because it's most tied to your existing customers.

Start with your own existing customer data, not cold targeting
Build ad sets at 1%, then 2-4%, then 5-7%, then 8%+
The percentage is how closely the audience's behavior matches your customers
Smaller percentage = closer match; 10% is a very wide base
8%+ usually doesn't work, but occasionally does — worth a test
On a limited budget, just start at 1% for the clearest signal

“use your own data start with your own data”
Timothy Davis · 12:30

“where 10% is pretty wide base that you're going to hit”
Timothy Davis · 14:00

#meta-ads#audience-targeting#testing#lookalikes

Explainer14:30

How to Tell If Your Creative or Your Content Is Failing

When an ad isn't working, Timothy first checks that the targeting is correct and the right users are getting impressions, then uses click-through rate to see if they're engaging. Distinguishing whether the creative or the content is failing is harder — for infeed ads with headline, primary, and description, he says the real answer usually comes from a focus group, plus in-platform control-versus-test experiments.

First confirm the target is correct — the right users are seeing the ads
Click-through rate tells you if users are engaging with what they see
Story creative stands on its own; infeed has headline, primary, description
Data alone (CTR, reach, frequency) rarely explains why creative doesn't resonate
Run a control-vs-test (e.g. logo + headline vs full creative) in the platform
A focus group gives the qualitative 'why' the metrics can't

“it's a million-- dollar question to be honest with you”
Timothy Davis · 14:30

#creative#diagnostics#testing#focus-groups

Explainer30:30

Don't Run Paid Ads Before You Have Product-Market Fit

Timothy shares that IBM ran ads across all of Africa but wasn't converting — the real issue was an operational product-market-fit problem: the continent has many currencies (franc, rand, shilling) while IBM only offered USD. Once they focused on South Africa and enabled the rand, performance improved dramatically. His broader point: without PMF, conversion stays low, you waste money, and you risk burning users who won't come back.

IBM advertised across all of Africa but couldn't convert
Root cause was operational PMF — multiple currencies, only USD accepted
Focusing on South Africa and enabling the rand fixed conversion
Without PMF, ads mostly annoy users and conversion stays low
A bad first experience can lose a user's business permanently
Big-budget awareness plays can run, but expect weak conversion

“in Africa there are multitudes of different types of uh currency there's the Fran there's the ran there's the shill”
Timothy Davis · 31:00

“it's probably not going to convert very well”
Timothy Davis · 33:00

#product-market-fit#conversion#case-study#strategy

Explainer48:00

Pausing One Poor Ad Can Dramatically Lift Your Whole Account

Walking through real Google Ads reports, Timothy shows how quality-score components (expected CTR, landing page experience, ad relevance) reveal where to act — improving ad relevance raises ad strength, which raises quality score and can add roughly 12% more impressions. He argues there's an account-level quality score, so pausing a single poor-performing ad with a high CPC can dramatically improve overall performance.

Quality score breaks into expected CTR, landing page experience, ad relevance
Improving a metric from below- to above-average can add ~12% impressions
Google tells you exactly what to fix (more unique headlines, unpin assets, more keywords)
He believes in an account-level quality score, not just per-keyword or per-ad
Pausing one poor ad with a high CPC can dramatically improve the account

“so just turning this one off and removing it from the account this one ad could dramatically improve your performance”
Timothy Davis · 51:00

#google-ads#quality-score#optimization#reporting

Explainer1:02:00

Multi-Touch Attribution and Measuring True Incrementality

Timothy favors multi-touch attribution, leaning toward time-decay because users quickly forget where they first found a brand. But he cautions attribution is biased — it can't tell you whether a user would have converted without the ad. That's why companies like Netflix and eBay run incrementality studies; eBay's ~2012 experiment led them to cut nearly all brand spend because users were finding them organically anyway. True incrementality is measured with geo experiments or conversion-lift tests where you withhold ads from a control group.

Time-decay multi-touch attribution beats first-touch — users forget early touches
Attribution is biased: it can't say if a user would've converted without the ad
Netflix and eBay ran incrementality studies to answer that
eBay's ~2012 test led them to cut almost all brand spend
Conversion-lift tests withhold your ad from a control group when you win an auction
Don't bother with incrementality tests below ~$50k/month — not enough signal

“they ultimately decided to cut almost all of their brands Ben because they found that users were already going to find them through organic anyway”
Timothy Davis · 1:03:30

“when you're running a conversion lift test you intentionally do not show your ad to some users when you win an auction and instead Google…”
Timothy Davis · 1:07:00

#attribution#incrementality#measurement#conversion-lift

Story· 2

Story20:30

How SoftLayer Geofenced Coca-Cola's Execs on LinkedIn to Win the Deal

At SoftLayer (later acquired by IBM), Timothy's team was competing with AWS and Microsoft for Coca-Cola's cloud business. The prospect's two concerns were recency and security, so they ran LinkedIn ads targeting anyone at Coca-Cola about exactly those topics — and geofenced the decision makers, who they discovered sat in LA, not Atlanta. On the next sales call the buyers said their concerns were resolved.

Two buyer objections were recency and security — ads addressed both directly
Targeted everyone at Coca-Cola, not just the single decision maker
Discovered the decision makers were in LA, not Atlanta, and geofenced them
The sales team heard 'security is fine, recency is fine' on the next call
They even tried to buy billboards around the office to reinforce it
LinkedIn's job-title and company targeting made this possible

“we also Geo fenced it because you would think Coca-Cola Atlanta that's where the decision maker sits but they were actually in La”
Timothy Davis · 22:30

“we get it we're seeing it everywhere we actually tried”
Timothy Davis · 23:30

#linkedin#b2b#abm#geofencing#case-study

Story1:11:30

The Ugly '$0 Setup Fee' Ad That Beat the 'Perfect' Ad

Timothy warns that the ad you think is perfect often flops because you're not the target audience. Working with ADT, his team crafted an ad that packed every value prop into Google's old headline-plus-two-descriptions format — and it lost to a barebones competitor ad that just said '$0 setup fee, $0 install fee.' They took the lesson, applied it to their value props, and did better. His rule: ad copy should be collaborative and no idea belongs on the cutting room floor without a test.

The ad you're proudest of often flops — you're not the target audience
ADT's value-prop-packed ad lost to a plain '$0 setup fee, $0 install fee' ad
The winning ad barely used any characters yet had more conversions and higher CTR
Ad copy should be collaborative, not written by the marketer alone
Always test — no idea should be left on the cutting room floor

“it flops because I'm not the target audience”
Timothy Davis · 1:12:00

“the ad that it was going against was dollar sign zero setup Fe dollar sign zero install fee”
Timothy Davis · 1:12:30

#creative#copywriting#testing#case-study

Tool· 1

Tool58:30

PPC Hero's 'True Competition Metric' for Spotting Real Rivals

Timothy recommends PPC Hero ('terrible name, great content') and specifically writer Jacob Brown's 'true competition metric,' which builds four new metrics from Google's auction insights. Two of them — position-above rate and how often a competitor shows when you don't — combine to reveal how often a rival ranks above you across all auctions, helping identify genuine threats rather than reacting to personalized search results.

Source: PPC Hero, writer Jacob Brown's 'true competition metric'
Builds four new metrics from Google auction insights data
Two key metrics: position-above rate, and show-when-you-don't rate
Reveals how often a competitor ranks above you across all your auctions
Identifies genuine threats vs assumptions from personalized SERPs or SEMrush

“terrible name great content”
Timothy Davis · 58:30

“the writer there his name is Jacob Brown this is what he calls the true competition metric”
Timothy Davis · 59:00

#tools#competitive-analysis#google-ads#auction-insights

Takeaway· 4

Takeaway08:30

Look at Where Users Already Find You, Then Turn That Channel Up

To judge whether paid could be a majority of your growth, Timothy says start by finding where users already are using your analytics data. If a channel like TikTok or Google is already sending you users organically, that is the signal to lean in with paid. But he warns creative doesn't transfer one-to-one — what works on meta may not work on TikTok.

Use Google Analytics or your analytics tool to see where users already find you
If a channel is already delivering, 'turn that knob up to 11' with paid
Adjacent channels (e.g. TikTok content repurposed to Snap) can be tested
Creative from one platform often doesn't work on another — different user mindset

“I always say where where are your users”
Timothy Davis · 08:30

#analytics#channels#growth#testing

Takeaway19:00

The Order to Roll Out Platforms: Google Search, Meta, Then YouTube

Asked which platforms to seriously consider, Timothy names Google (which includes YouTube, Search, and the Google Display Network) and meta (Facebook and Instagram), plus TikTok if the data shows users there. For someone getting their feet wet, his order is: start with Google search, then meta, and add YouTube if you have video creative available.

Google encompasses YouTube, Search, and GDN — many options
Meta contains both Facebook and Instagram
He's very bullish on video when measured correctly
Getting started order: Google search → meta → YouTube (if video ready)
Add TikTok if your data shows users are there

“start with Google search then get into meta uh and if you have video available definitely get into YouTube”
Timothy Davis · 20:00

#channels#platforms#video#getting-started

Takeaway24:00

LinkedIn Is ~3x More Expensive — Test Google and Meta First

Timothy warns LinkedIn looks roughly three times more expensive than other channels, but its targeting (job titles, industries, specific companies) is very powerful. His advice: don't get into LinkedIn until you've tested Google and meta first, unless you're an enterprise-level company where starting on LinkedIn can make sense. It suits higher-LTV, higher-ACV products.

LinkedIn costs about three times more than other channels
Its targeting of job titles, industries, and specific companies is powerful
Don't start on LinkedIn until Google and meta are tested
Enterprise-level companies can justify starting on LinkedIn
Best fit for higher-LTV, higher-ACV products

“it's going to look almost three times more expensive than other channels”
Timothy Davis · 20:30

“I would not recommend getting into LinkedIn until you've uh tested Google and meta first”
Timothy Davis · 24:00

#linkedin#b2b#budget#channel-strategy

Takeaway40:30

Your First Performance Hire Should Find Signal in the Noise

Timothy's most important trait for a first hire is a data thought process, not platform skills — he can teach anyone Google or meta ads, but the hard part is the data. Ad platforms give you everything (reach, frequency, CPM, CPC, conversion rate, cost per lead, cost per MQL), which is overwhelming noise; the job is knowing which signal to focus on given the campaign's actual goal.

Platform skills are teachable; data judgment is the hard, rare part
Platforms flood you with metrics — most of it is noise
The skill is separating the signal from the noise for the campaign goal
Inspired by Nate Silver's 'The Signal and the Noise' — 'signal not noise'
In interviews he throws data points at candidates and asks what to optimize

“I can teach anyone how to do Google ads I can teach anyone how to do meta ads that that is not the hard part…”
Timothy Davis · 41:30

#hiring#data#team-building#analytics

Key ideas

Frameworks in this episode

Ad Strength Hole-in-the-Ship Diagnostic

Capacity-Red Headcount Justification

Incrementality via Conversion Lift & Geo Tests

Paid Channel Sequencing Ladder

Signal vs Noise Metric Selection

The Ops Cadence Spreadsheet

The Signs of Life Test

The Three-Hire Performance Team Sequence

The True Competition Metric

People & resources mentioned

People · 8

Resources · 58

Insights & moments

◆Hot Take· 4

Why Paid Search Should Be a Baseline for Almost Every Company

Give Yourself Grace: You're Either Winning or Learning

Why Agencies Underperform: Playbooks Instead of Getting in the Weeds

Impression Share Is Ego Marketing — Optimize for Click Share Instead

✶Explainer· 5

How to Test Lookalike Audiences From 1% to 10%

How to Tell If Your Creative or Your Content Is Failing

Don't Run Paid Ads Before You Have Product-Market Fit

Pausing One Poor Ad Can Dramatically Lift Your Whole Account

Multi-Touch Attribution and Measuring True Incrementality

❝Story· 2

How SoftLayer Geofenced Coca-Cola's Execs on LinkedIn to Win the Deal

The Ugly '$0 Setup Fee' Ad That Beat the 'Perfect' Ad

✦Tool· 1

PPC Hero's 'True Competition Metric' for Spotting Real Rivals

▲Takeaway· 4

Look at Where Users Already Find You, Then Turn That Channel Up

The Order to Roll Out Platforms: Google Search, Meta, Then YouTube

LinkedIn Is ~3x More Expensive — Test Google and Meta First

Your First Performance Hire Should Find Signal in the Noise

Hot Take· 4

Explainer· 5

Story· 2

Tool· 1

Takeaway· 4