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Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)12 July 2026

How tech workers actually feel about AI in 2026

2Frameworks
13Insights

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Frameworks in this episode

Insights & moments

The myth-busts, hot takes, explainers, and tools worth keeping.

Myth Buster· 2

Myth Buster

AI Makes Work Faster, but Workers Say Quality Is Not Improving

Nearly everyone said AI makes them better at their job, but deeper responses defined better mainly as producing more work faster. Respondents also reported cognitive rot, skill atrophy, and weaker judgment when they accept AI output without deliberate thinking.

  • 97.2% said AI makes them better at their job
  • Nearly half said it makes them very much or extremely better
  • The perceived gain was primarily speed and volume, not quality
  • Offloading difficult thinking can reduce self-efficacy
  • Deliberate practice and judgment are needed to resist skill atrophy

I can do more faster, but not better.

Noam Siegel

the productivity gains are real, but the quality of the work and the sharpness of the person producing it are taking a hit.

Lenny Rachitsky
#productivity#work quality#cognitive rot#judgment
Myth Buster

AI Guilt Hits Early-Career Workers Hardest

Early-career workers were more likely to feel that using AI was a form of cheating, and the guilt declined with seniority. Noam connects the pattern to imposter phenomenon: competent people attribute their success to something outside themselves, now assigning that credit to AI rather than another person.

  • AI guilt was strongest among early-career workers
  • Guilt declined with seniority
  • Product marketing and data and analytics reported especially high guilt
  • The pattern resembles imposter phenomenon
  • Noam argues that workers should learn to use the technology without treating its help as illegitimate

we're starting to see this AI guilt, and in particular amongst people who are early in their career

Noam Siegel

this is related to the well-known and well-established imposter phenomenon

Noam Siegel
#ai guilt#imposter phenomenon#early career#workplace psychology

Hot Take· 1

Hot Take

The Top AI Fear Is More Work for the Same Pay

Job replacement ranked second to last among respondents' stated AI concerns. Their dominant fear was being expected to produce more for the same pay, followed by an unsustainable pace of work and technological change.

  • Job loss to AI ranked second to last among stated concerns
  • More work for the same pay ranked first
  • Unsustainable pace ranked alongside the workload squeeze
  • Time spent learning new models also reduces focused work time
  • Each productivity gain risks becoming a permanent new baseline

Losing my job to AI is actually second to last on that list.

Noam Siegel

what we saw rise up to the top is the expectation to do more for the same pay.

Noam Siegel
#workload#compensation#ai productivity#burnout

Explainer· 8

Explainer

AI Has Split Professional Identity Almost Exactly in Half

Only 3% of respondents said AI had not shifted their professional identity. Half felt amplified, while much of the other half felt their role was being redefined, destabilized, or diminished.

  • Only 3% reported no AI-driven identity shift
  • 50% felt amplified by AI
  • 27% felt their role was being redefined
  • 14% felt destabilized and 5% felt diminished
  • AI identity stance correlated with optimism, burnout, layoff worry, and role recommendation

only 3% of people reported that AI hasn't shifted their identity.

Noam Siegel

50% of people in tech are feeling amplified.

Noam Siegel
#ai#professional identity#future of work
Explainer

The Four Emotional Archetypes of Tech Workers in 2026

Survey emotions clustered into four archetypes: energized, conflicted, disoriented, and resentful. The categories show why one person's AI excitement can coexist with a colleague's uncertainty or anger.

  • Energized workers made up 41% of the sample
  • The conflicted or ambivalent middle made up 35%
  • Disoriented workers felt their role kept shifting without a clear path
  • Resentful workers made up 12% and felt pressured or checked out
  • The split argues for empathy across very different AI experiences

the first archetype we found is the energized tech worker, and that's 41% of our sample.

Noam Siegel

And then finally, 12% of the sample we categorized as resentful.

Noam Siegel
#ai#employee sentiment#workplace psychology
Explainer

Tech Burnout Jumped Ten Points While Optimism Fell

Significant burnout rose from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026, while career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7%. Enjoyment remained comparatively high, showing that employees can still find the work exciting while the pace becomes unhealthy.

  • Significant burnout increased by 10 percentage points in one year
  • More than half of respondents reported significant burnout
  • Career optimism declined by 6.1 percentage points
  • High enjoyment does not rule out serious burnout
  • Both low velocity and relentless high velocity can contribute to burnout

When it comes to significant burnout, burnout that's higher than moderate, we've gone up from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026.

Noam Siegel

optimism around the future of our roles and our careers, is falling from 54.8% in 2025 to 48.7% in 2026.

Noam Siegel
#burnout#career optimism#tech workers
Explainer

Workers Enjoy AI While Fearing It May Eliminate Their Jobs

Seventy-two percent of respondents expressed at least some layoff worry, with 41.2% at least moderately worried. The episode frames this as deep ambivalence: people enjoy new capabilities while wondering whether their own automation work is cutting away the branch they sit on.

  • 72% had some degree of layoff worry
  • 41.2% were at least moderately worried
  • Companies going all-in on agents can intensify displacement fears
  • Excitement, enjoyment, fatigue, and job anxiety can coexist

72% of our sample are worried to a certain extent about being laid off, and 41.2% are at least moderately worried about being laid off.

Noam Siegel

it does feel like they may be pushed out at some point.

Noam Siegel
#layoffs#ai anxiety#job security
Explainer

Smiling Exhaustion Captures the AI-Era Emotional Mix

Curiosity and excitement were the two most common emotions, but they appeared beside overwhelm, conflict, fatigue, burnout, unease, and anxiety. The phrase smiling exhaustion captures workers who feel newly energized to build but cannot find an off switch.

  • Curiosity and excitement topped the emotion list
  • Positive and negative emotions frequently coexisted
  • AI can make people feel reborn as builders while creating relentless tempo
  • The episode rejects a simple hype-versus-doomer split
  • Mixed emotions are presented as normal rather than inconsistent

there's no off switch. There's no off switch. And so the tempo is absolutely brutal.

Noam Siegel

it's okay to be excited and curious, but also feel overwhelmed.

Noam Siegel
#smiling exhaustion#ambivalence#burnout#ai
Explainer

Designers and Researchers Feel the Most Negative About AI

Designers and researchers led several negative measures: feeling destabilized or diminished, reporting anxiety and fatigue, worrying about AI, and declining to recommend their roles. Data and analytics workers were even more worried specifically about losing their jobs, while the speakers stressed that these are sentiment findings rather than forecasts of which roles will disappear.

  • Design and research scored worst across several sentiment measures
  • They were least likely to recommend their roles
  • Data and analytics showed the highest job-loss worry
  • The findings describe emotions, not objective replacement risk
  • The episode argues that taste, craft, judgment, design, and research remain important

We are seeing that designers and researchers are the most negative.

Noam Siegel
#design#research#data analytics#ai anxiety
Explainer

Founders and Small-Company Workers Report Better Outcomes

For the second year, active founders and people at smaller companies reported better outcomes across optimism, enjoyment, burnout, layoff worry, and AI excitement. The report warns about selection bias and notes that founders still experience substantial burnout, so the finding is not a promise that starting a company creates happiness.

  • Founders were 71% optimistic
  • Founders reported the highest enjoyment and AI excitement
  • They also had the lowest burnout and layoff worry
  • 47% of founders were still at least moderately burnt out
  • Outcomes worsened roughly linearly as company size increased

It's still founders and people who are working in smaller companies.

Noam Siegel

They're 71% optimistic, uh, they're enjoying their jobs the most, they have the lowest burnout, the lowest layoff worry, the most AI excitement.

Noam Siegel
#founders#company size#burnout#career optimism
Explainer

The Same Chaotic Tech Market Feels Thrilling and Terrifying

Open-ended descriptions of the tech industry clustered around change, chaos, speed, excitement, instability, hype, and opportunity. Sentiment analysis was almost perfectly balanced, reinforcing the episode's central finding that workers see the same environment but interpret it very differently.

  • 37% of words were positive
  • 37% were negative
  • About 26% were neutral
  • Respondents described the industry as fast, unstable, confusing, and full of opportunity
  • The even split mirrors the broader divide in AI identity and emotion

37% of the words used when we ran sentiment analysis were positive. 37% were negative, and the the remaining 26% or so were neutral.

Noam Siegel

We're all seeing the same thing, but half of us find it thrilling, the other half find it terrifying.

Noam Siegel
#tech industry#sentiment#ai#change

Takeaway· 2

Takeaway

No Tech Function Would Recommend Its Role to Newcomers

Every function produced a negative role-recommendation score, including founders, even though many respondents currently enjoy their work. Lower-seniority workers were less likely to recommend their roles, supporting the metaphor that AI is pulling away the lower rungs of the career ladder.

  • No surveyed function had a positive role Net Promoter Score
  • Founders were the least negative but still not promoters
  • Designers and researchers were least likely to recommend their roles
  • Lower-seniority respondents were less likely to recommend their roles
  • The finding measures sentiment, not proof that any function is disappearing

What you're seeing here is that no one is a promoter of their role in tech right now.

Noam Siegel

It's not about the realities of working in tech. It's about people's emotions, about how people feel.

Noam Siegel
#careers#entry level#job sentiment#ai
Takeaway

Manager Effectiveness Is a Major Lever on Burnout and Enjoyment

Employees with extremely effective managers reported around 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout. Yet only about a quarter rated their manager highly effective, while 36% rated their manager ineffective, creating concern about flatter organizations and wider spans of control.

  • Manager effectiveness showed a massive relationship with well-being
  • Extremely effective managers corresponded with roughly 65% higher enjoyment
  • Only about 25% rated their manager highly effective
  • 36% rated their manager ineffective
  • Managers also mediate the workload squeeze created by higher AI expectations

if you have an extremely effective manager, for example, you're reporting around 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout.

Noam Siegel

only about 25% of the sample rate their manager as highly effective. And 36% of the sample rated their managers as ineffective

Noam Siegel
#management#burnout#job enjoyment#retention